“RJD's furture is in dark. There is a huge question mark over the party's impactful political role in the state now. It has become very difficult for the powerless RJD to maintain its existence powewrfully in Bihar. In 1997 he was in power. He transformed the jail as his office and dictated the government. So, at that time people didn't leave him because he was in power,” Avadhesh Kumar, a political expert, told this Citizen Journalist.
Kumar added that in the present circumstances when RJD is out of power, it will be really difficult that the supporters, party leaders and workers maintain their loyalty to the party.
“During this time when RJD is struggling to get its political support in the state, Lalu Yadav's conviction and non-existence from the political platform is a huge set back for the party. I don't think too many party leaders and workers will be with the RJD for a long time. JD(U) will also try its best to take advantage of the situation and woo as many leaders as possible from the RJD," added Kumar.
After Lalu Yadav who will lead the RJD? There is no answer of this question yet. Although Rabri Devi has said to media that she along with her son would run the party but political experts have a different observation.
“There is no decision over who will lead the party after Lalu Yadav. There wouldn't be many, who will be willing to work under the leadership of either Rabri Devi or her son Tejasvi Yadav,” said Avadhesh Kumar.
“It's very clear. The closeness between Nitish Kumar and Congress is already there. If he looses his Lok Sabha membership and goes to jail, then there will not be any poll alliance between Congress and RJD. Instead the alliance will be between the Congress and Nitish Kumar,” said Dr. Prem Singh, National General Secretary, Socialist Party of India.
However, there are also doubts over the chances of any alliance between the Congress and JD(U). Analysts say that in the wake of serious charges of corruption against the Congress party, Nitish Kumar may decide to stay away from the UPA.
“Under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi Congress has shown inclination towards Nitish Kumar. A Congress spokesperson has already said that possibilities of a new polarisation has emerged in Bihar. Mulsim and Yadav communities were the main vote bank of Lalu Yadav. If the Congress and JD(U) become partners they will try to polarise at least the minority vote bank in their favor," said Avadhesh Kumar.
He added, "However, there is doubt if the JD(U) also wants any alliance with the Congress as there are accusations of corruption, mis-governance against the Congress."