Despite BJP’s ever sustaining popularity among urban and middle class, Congress did extremely well during 2009 election. The reason is very basic and simple. 2007-2008 global recessions didn’t affect India’s economy. Though RBI’s contribution was very important, but the credit goes to Manmohan Singh. The asserting Manmohan Singh put his government at stake for Indo-US nuclear deal. Thus the middle class and urban class found a hero in Manmohan Singh.
This class has three basic issues, which are inflation, employment and the growing condition of Indian economy. Manmohan Singh promised to bring down inflation in 100 days. People trusted and voted Congress irrespective of the alleged cash for vote during confidence vote.Now the inflation is intolerable, economy is out of track, unemployment is at the highest level, despite India being a country of young-men. This makes Modi and BJP more attractive to them.
Corruption is always an issue for everyone - urban and middle-class. Corruption may be a big issue, but not a deciding issues, atleast does not come above the said three basic issues. Thus on an anti-corruption movement, AAP can’t win space from BJP in these centers in general election. Those who decided to vote for BJP may appreciate AAP but will vote BJP, as a better livelihood with decent lifestyle is paramount for them.
Does this mean AAP would fail in general election? People think that anti-BJP and anti-Modi votes may be rallied behind AAP. Those votes, which can never come to BJP are likely to go to the AAP fold, which means AAP will get his space in national polity but not at the cost of BJP’s prospect rather at the cost of third front or fourth front parties. Thus SP, BSP, RJD, JDS, JDU, TMC etc may suffer.
AAP appear to be more credible and hence can even eat up the left votes too. That means the possibility of third or fourth front government will not be there and there would be decisive votes. Interestingly people from JDU and SP have started joining AAP. By division of anti-BJP votes, BJP may gain some more seats also.
Well, the above given schools of thought are mere speculations and post elections, it would be known who is right. But, I am happy that with AAP's emergence, as both national parties BJP and Congress are transforming their strategy and policy according to common man’s needs and wishes. Better policies and visions will come out and finally the common man would benefit.