Afghan Taliban launches spring offensive
The declared aim of the Taliban in their Spring Offensive is to attack the foreign forces bases, establishments of Afghan Security Forces and the civilian establishments that have been sustaining foreign forces logistically.
KABUL AND and Kandahar are looking pretty with flowers blooming all over fields. There is pleasant warmth in the air and welcome smile on people’s faces. The heavy woollens are off during day and pedestrians move around freely. PEACE PREVAILS ALL OVER. But not for long. Perhaps this is the lull before the storm. SPRING OFFENSIVE When snows on hills melted and poppy flowers were ready to be harvested for sale as opium, the NATO commanders knew that time had come for another round of intensive fighting. The field commanders of the US Army were ready to welcome the enemy fighters with open arms. The surge in the American fighting strength needed to be tested in battle. Their number had touched the figure of 100,000 after the US commanders had impressed on the President of the United States that a Surge would raise their morale, help them take initiative in field, break the ascendancy of the Taliban in field and enable the NATO commanders and soldiers to disengage in battle as victorious heroes returning home. Before the Surge they were likely to withdraw as defeated columns like many of their British counterparts of the 19th century Anglo-Afghan veterans. If the NATO wished to disengage and withdraw from Kabul-Kandahar axis, the time was now. In any case it was their own Commander-in-Chief President Obama, who had mistakenly made an announcement of the date of withdrawal of the American forces from Afghanistan in July 2011. The said Presidential announcement had raised the morale of the Taliban rebels as now more than ever before, they were convinced that the American forces were on their way home. It is a well known fact that a field force commander first loses the battle in his mind and the troops lose it on the ground subsequently. The morale of the US forces was indeed lowered subsequent to that disastrous presidential announcement about the likely date of American withdrawal from Afghanistan. President Barack Obama could have done better without making that unwarranted announcement. However, the damage control exercises were mounted and General Petraeus made it amply clear in numerous press briefings that only victorious US forces would go home. But the damage that was done by President Obama’s statement could not be undone. The Taliban in Afghanistan were jubilant that they would be the virtual rulers of Afghanistan after the Americans leave. And leave they will. PAKISTAN’S POUND OF FLESH Ostensibly Pakistan is an ally of the United States of America. However, at heart Pakistan are worse than the Taliban. Pakistan prays every morning and evening that the yanks withdraw so that Pakistan gets hold of Afghanistan for its strategy of Defence in Depth against an attack by India. Numerous military commentators have raised an eyebrow on the sincerity of Pakistan in supporting the western forces in Afghanistan. In fact the US State Department officers have called General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan Army Chief a liar who cannot be relied upon in matters of higher military strategy. Surprisingly, General Kayani did not protest. Recently, Pakistan made an attempt to stab America in the back. A high ranking civil and military delegation of Pakistan visited Kabul to have a secret talk with President Karzai. On the Islamic net the Pakistanis laid bare their hearts. Their new military strategy revolved around making China a reliable friend of Afghanistan and Pakistan subsequent to withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan. China would stand by the Muslim countries, just in case India made mischief. America, in any case, is a waning power and Muslim countries need not rely on her after the 9/ 11 episode. China is an emerging super power and a friend of the Muslim countries. President Karzai of Afghanistan gave the Pakistan delegation a patient hearing but was not convinced of the new axis of friendship. Karzai took the American leaders into confidence and laid his heart bare before them. The American leadership was not caught unawares as they had an inkling into what the Pakis were doing behind their back. When Americans confronted the Pakistanis with what they had been playing with, it left them red faced and soured the US-Pak relationship further. As an impartial observer, I am of the opinion that the Taliban, both Afghan and Pakistan, have been the best gainers of this Pakistan’s faux pas. Leaving aside the diplomatic game and coming to the battle field, commanders will have to convince the NATO rank and file that they are there to stay on until the Al Qaida-Taliban combine is exterminated. Any talk of a negotiated withdrawal before the Islamist terrorists bite the dust would mean a strategic defeat for the western forces. Indeed it would be very difficult for them to live down the stigma of defeat at the hands of semi-literate Taliban who is out there to defeat the foreign forces. The thrust of the Spring Offensive is against the NATO led international forces stationed in Afghanistan. The base commanders of foreign forces will have to be extra cautious in defending their precious arms and ammunition too. Generally speaking, the Taliban rebels are out to get the latest sophisticated weapon system of the Americans to be passed on to the Chinese arms manufacturers so that they copy and go in mass production of the same. The PLA of China needs modernisation badly and what better opportunity can there be than the present one to lay hands on the most modern infantry and artillery weapon systems. Ramifications of the Afghan mini war between the Al Qaida and Taliban combine on the one hand and the NATO led western forces on the other hand, are many. The outcome will have far reaching repercussions. No wonder both sides to the military conflict are committed to the cause they are fighting for. Any let up midway will be disastrous and the posterity will not condone the mistakes committed by the present generation. Both the parties have a major stake in the fire fight. No quarters have been asked for and none will be given. It is indeed going to be a FIGHT TO FINISH.
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