I WANT TO begin the write-up with the question that has intrigued me for past some days: Where has Adam Air’s Boeing 737-400 vanished? The year 2007 began on a sad note when Indonesia’s budget carrier aircraft carrying 102 persons went missing on the New Year’s Day. Nevertheless, we aspire for a turn of events for the good in the months to come. Here are some logical inferences drawn after careful understanding of major trends and then drawing out their ripple effects in the current year.
Business: The torrid pace at which India’s markets have been growing in last years could be capped by economic slowdown in 2007, as speculate by a few experts. However, some analysts still anticipate the robust economic growth in the existing average annual growth rate of 8.1 per cent in the last three years and sturdy corporate profits in 2007, although margins could be under pressure. As such, India will most certainly still retain the distinction of being the second-fastest growing economy in the world for the fifth year in a row. In the words of Shashank Bhide of National Council for Applied Economic Research: “Consumer spending will remain strong and continue to drive growth. Much will, however, depend on investment in infrastructure for the growth rate to accelerate.”
Mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures have been very happening domains in the year 2006. India Inc is hoped to buzz around with it through the year 2007 too.
Proposed acquisition of Corus by Tatas, another sign of growing global aspirations of the Tata Group, will be keenly followed in 2007.
India’s leading pharmaceutical company Ranbaxy acquired Terapia, the largest independent generic company in Romania, for $324 million in 2006.
Wipro’s acquired the US-based mechanical design firm Quantech Global Sevices for $10 million. The deal will provide for the rising demand for complete product engineering services.
The Rs 2,600-crore Torrent Power Ltd signed joint venture agreement with Power Grid Corporation of India Ltd (PowerGrid) in New Delhi to lay dedicated lines to evacuate 1,100 mw from Sugen Project in Gujarat. It will help ease the perennial power shortage in Gujarat.
Another cheer-raising aspect of 2007 is the boom in employment opportunities. I came across these quotes sometime back and was heartened for the youngsters slogging it out day and night for their future looks quite bright. “Employment prospects will be extremely bright in 2007, spread across all regions of India,” said Nirupama AG, associate director, TeamLease Services. “A 40 per cent growth in the number of jobs is expected over last year.”
In the words of Sudhakar Balakrishnan, director and COO of Adecco India, a leading human resources solutions company: “The sectors that will offer the largest number of opportunities will be information technology, IT-enabled services, construction, and infrastructure.”
Politics: Politically, the year is going to be a crucial one, says the crystal ball. A year with major elections - presidential and vice-presidential elections besides Assembly elections in Punjab, Uttaranchal, Manipur and Uttar Pradesh in the first half of the year and in Goa and Gujarat in the second half, with the possibility of mid-term polls in Jharkhand in view of the political instability in the state. Congress has started short-listing names of possible candidates as it goes all out to retain power in the polls scheduled in Punjab and Uttarakhand in February. The election results are bound to affect the UPA government, which is now in its third year of its five-year tenure at the Center. In the view of experts, the UPA is in for a tough second-half.
The political issues that cropped up last year will make impact this year. These include the issues of unemployment, price rise, caste conflicts, agrarian crisis, farmer suicides and foreign policy of the country. In fact, the foreign policy has largely become a battle turf for ideologically disparate political parties. The scene was quite charged after the execution of Saddam Hussein when India could not oppose the act in the strongest of words. Samajwadi Party, for instance, charged the UPA government with a “mild and inadequate” response.
What lies ahead for Congress MP Rahul Gandhi in 2007? All Congressmen have been pressing for a more emphatic role for Rahul who led the victorious campaign for Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareilly after she quit the seat in the wake of the office-of-profit controversy. Meanwhile, the BJP is trying to come out of hibernation, though faceless in the absence of a truly towering national leader.
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