Al-Qaida's figurehead is dead: What will become of Al-Qaida?
After an early morning raid on a fortified compound in Abbottabad, 100 kms off Islamabad, Osama Bin Laden was shot dead, identified, and was reportedly buried at sea within hours. The US has closed a chapter, but what will be the fate of Al-Qaida?
THE QUICK manner in which US President Barack Obama has acted after confirming the killing of Al-Qaida figurehead Osama Bin Laden, reveals a well-thought plan by the Obama administration to not let Al-Qaida milk any mileage out of his death.
With Osama out of the way, Al-Qaida is bound to experience a massive dip in morale, and its deperate bid to somehow re-organize while still being on the run, is now over for the time being.
The US will pin its hope on the fact that Osama's death will be the final squeeze on Al-Qaida as a terrorist organization that can pose grave threat. If news of his reported burial at sea is true - as one never knows with secretive US security agencies who might have embalmed the original body and buried a clone - Obama has given no opportunuty to jihadists within Al-Qaida to use his death as fresh propaganda.
The logic would have been - the less he is on US shores, even if dead, the less support his sudden death will garner. Had Osama been brought back dead and kept for some time in the US till 'appropriate' decision was taken, it would have given the Al-Qaida leadership, or what's left of it, the chance to use the time to leverage his death a tool as a call to arms and launch a fresh jihad.
No matter how and how long they keep 'Osama the Martyr' in the foreground - organizations such as Al-Qaida, Huji, Let, JeM and others have received a clear signal from the US - you can hit, run, hide, still we will find you. The other message, loud and strong is, Pakistan's backyard belongs to the US. ISI and the Pakistani army can shake their heads as much as they can - but 'partnership' with Pakistan is something that the US will only undertake with a barge pole.
This was evident from the fact that only a handful of people in the US administration knew of Monday's attack on the compound inhabited by Osama - and the handful did not include anybody from Pakistan.
So what lies ahead for Al-Qaida? The US must surely be assessing this question. One possible way things will move is that Al-Qaida will become leaner, and operate as small cells lead by a few large cells. It can even become country-specific vis-a-vis being 'cell' based. The more independent it becomes, the more it becomes like a 'need-to-know' basis set up - the more dangerous a threat it will pose.
In effect, the US has ensured that Osama's memory is not kept alive by his quick burial.
Nevertheless, extremist Islamic organizations will still use Osama's death to incite anger at the US in killing a 'visionary leader', and the person responsible for masterminding and financing the single most audacious attack on the US.
Nevertheless, extremist Islamic organizations will still use Osama's death to incite anger at the US in killing a 'visionary leader', and the person responsible for masterminding and financing the single most audacious attack on the US.
No matter how and how long they keep 'Osama the Martyr' in the foreground - organizations such as Al-Qaida, Huji, Let, JeM and others have received a clear signal from the US - you can hit, run, hide, still we will find you. The other message, loud and strong is, Pakistan's backyard belongs to the US. ISI and the Pakistani army can shake their heads as much as they can - but 'partnership' with Pakistan is something that the US will only undertake with a barge pole.
This was evident from the fact that only a handful of people in the US administration knew of Monday's attack on the compound inhabited by Osama - and the handful did not include anybody from Pakistan.
So what lies ahead for Al-Qaida? The US must surely be assessing this question. One possible way things will move is that Al-Qaida will become leaner, and operate as small cells lead by a few large cells. It can even become country-specific vis-a-vis being 'cell' based. The more independent it becomes, the more it becomes like a 'need-to-know' basis set up - the more dangerous a threat it will pose.
The disadvantage of having a core leadership is that the future of an organization tends to be concentrated in the hands of the few. The requirments and voice of men on the road, who know the latest ground situations, often gets lost in middle management, who are busy in negotiating with the wishes of the top managment.
But one thing's is clear - Al-Qaida is likely to lie dormant for a while, and will carry out strikes only when it's confident of success. This means all countries who face threat from Islamic terrorism will have to become more vigilant as in the future Al-Qaida will strike as unexpectedly as the Navy Seals and CIA special operations did in Abbottabad.
The sudden and astonishing news of Osama's killing, and the manner in which the lightening raid was carried out, and the country in which it was carried out - pose two critical questions.
With Khaled Mohammad Sheikh imprisoned, Osama's right and left hand men gone, and with Osama gone himself - the original leadership of Al-Qaida has been wiped out. Only Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri remains from Al-Qaida's core leadership group, though he's supposed to have died with his wife and children in an air strike. A bunch of Egyptians, Libyans, Afghans and US-based arabs are all what remains of a middle management of Al-Qaida.
But one thing's is clear - Al-Qaida is likely to lie dormant for a while, and will carry out strikes only when it's confident of success. This means all countries who face threat from Islamic terrorism will have to become more vigilant as in the future Al-Qaida will strike as unexpectedly as the Navy Seals and CIA special operations did in Abbottabad.
The sudden and astonishing news of Osama's killing, and the manner in which the lightening raid was carried out, and the country in which it was carried out - pose two critical questions.
With Khaled Mohammad Sheikh imprisoned, Osama's right and left hand men gone, and with Osama gone himself - the original leadership of Al-Qaida has been wiped out. Only Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri remains from Al-Qaida's core leadership group, though he's supposed to have died with his wife and children in an air strike. A bunch of Egyptians, Libyans, Afghans and US-based arabs are all what remains of a middle management of Al-Qaida.
But with Osama dead, the middle-management of Al-Qaida is in complete disarray as there's no one to take directions from, and the foot soldiers are running like rats - slithering around and into hideouts provided by pashtuns and ISI.
Al-Qaida's funding has been choked to such an extent that the Taliban elements that still form a quater of Al-Qaida, are surviving on handouts and captured or looted weapons.
The second question is equally important. With Pakistan being increasingly sidelined and no longer a trusted 'ally', whom do Al-Qaida recruits and remaining recruits turn to? In which country or even area should Al-Qaida chose to re-group? Who will manage its active and sleeper cells? What's its business plan? In American terminology - Al-Qaida filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Monday morning.
Events in the US in the last 24 hours and last 2 years, give an indication that the US now wants to move on. It wants to bring a closure to September 11. Instead of fighting wars half-way across the world it wants to focus on homeland security,
and select its 'military adventures'. At least that's what the Democrats under Obama want to do.
So 11 years after the world was caught unaware, after it saw the mightly US attacked so brazenly, families of September 11 victims will find solace that Al-Qaida has been reduced to a rag-tag group of malnourished and scared jungle rats - devoid of funding, minus core leadership, and without the symbol behind modern terrorism - Sheikh Osama Bin Laden.
Al-Qaida's funding has been choked to such an extent that the Taliban elements that still form a quater of Al-Qaida, are surviving on handouts and captured or looted weapons.
The second question is equally important. With Pakistan being increasingly sidelined and no longer a trusted 'ally', whom do Al-Qaida recruits and remaining recruits turn to? In which country or even area should Al-Qaida chose to re-group? Who will manage its active and sleeper cells? What's its business plan? In American terminology - Al-Qaida filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Monday morning.
Events in the US in the last 24 hours and last 2 years, give an indication that the US now wants to move on. It wants to bring a closure to September 11. Instead of fighting wars half-way across the world it wants to focus on homeland security,
and select its 'military adventures'. At least that's what the Democrats under Obama want to do.
So 11 years after the world was caught unaware, after it saw the mightly US attacked so brazenly, families of September 11 victims will find solace that Al-Qaida has been reduced to a rag-tag group of malnourished and scared jungle rats - devoid of funding, minus core leadership, and without the symbol behind modern terrorism - Sheikh Osama Bin Laden.
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