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An amazing BJP win in UP: What does it mean for 2019?
BJP, under the leadership of our beloved Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, has won an amazing electoral victory In UP, winning 312 out of 403 seats. I would like to congratulate Mr. Modi and his electoral management team for this outstanding feat which has left the opposition stunned.

However, elections are, to an extent, like cricket matches. In cricket we have different formats like test matches, one day matches and Twenty 20 matches. The matches are played between the teams, over and over again and year after year. No victory or defeat is permanent. Only recently, Australia thrashed India by a record margin in the first test only to lose the second.

Elections also have different formats, general elections, state elections and local body elections. These are also held again and again every five years. Hence the win, however overwhelming, is not permanent and can be reversed every five years. Five years is not a very long while in the life of a person. It is an even smaller period in the life of a nation. Also, because of the different formats, one does not have to wait five years for the next contest.

In spite of the temporary nature of any election victory, any victory must be celebrated in style and winners must be congratulated on the achievement. On the other hand, the loser must not lose heart. They must change the captain and coaches in case of prolonged failures, select the team with due care and rework the strategy.

An Unnoticed Aspect

One thing that has escaped notice in the euphoria of victory is that BJP won the amazing victory with just 42% vote share. SP with 29% got only 57 seats out of 403 while BSP with about 20% vote share got only 17. Congress with about 7% vote share got 7 seats. Thus the three main opposition parties got a total of 54% of the vote share but only 81 seats. Multi cornered contests benefit the BJP. If the opposition can unite as they did in Bihar, they would be able to give a better fight.

Consequences of the Victory for the Country

The land slide victory in UP is likely to have the following consequences.

Firstly, the victory gives the BJP the mandate and opportunity to bring much needed development and law and order to the state. Development for all has been Mr. Modi's clarion call. One hopes and prays that he will be able to fulfil the aspirations of the people and extend his reign forever.

Secondly, the mandate gives the BJP the opportunity to divide UP into four more efficiently governable smaller states. It will also enable the BJP to have four Chief Ministers and about 200 ministers. It would thus be able to reward almost all its victorious candidates with perks of office.

Thirdly, the victory gives them a major advantage in next year's presidential election. They would thus be able to, in line with their present policy, have one of the RSS leaders, possibly Mr. Mohan Bhagwat as our next president.

Fourthly, we are likely to see the responsibilities of maintaining law and order and moral policing being taken away from the police and be handed over to the Sangh Parivar with their different "Senas" and the ABVP. Liberals, secularists, college and school teachers and principals will have to maintain a low profile or face the wrath of these organizations.

Fifthly, we are likely to see more and more tax payer's money being sanctioned for maintaining "Goshalas" for stray cattle. We are also likely to see more and more abandoned stray cattle on the roads. Some parts of the country are also likely to see a severe shortage of fodder as the cattle population grows and may have to import fodders from the US. Fodder will also become more costly and that in turn will result in rise in price of milk.

Consequences for the Opposition

It will be survival of the fittest amongst the opposition parties. The only pan India opposition party, the Congress, is in total disarray. It will become a regional party unless it can reinvent itself. Some like the Rashtriya Lok Dal and BSP are on the verge of extinction. Not that many will shed tears if they do. Regional Parties will do all they can to ensure their survival. In this, regional pride will play a part.

At a national level, the opposition will have to come together as they did in Bihar. Most of the opposition consists of a single leader based party like BSP and Mamata Banerjee or family owned like Congress, National Congress, SP, RLD and so on. The chances of their putting aside their family interests and ambitions and getting together are remote. Jaichand let down Prithviraj in the second Battle of Terrain against Mohammad Ghori. Raja of Malwa switched sides and betrayed Rana Sangha in the Battle of Kanah against Babar. Shirajudaulah was betrayed by his own general in the Battle of Plassey against Robert Clive. Can Indians ever get together against a common foe?

Opposition will have to revise their strategy. Caste politics, religion politics, vote bank politics and personal attacks have proved to be ineffective. Development and good governance are the only things that appeal to young India. They will have to induct new and more acceptable young leaders. Much more attention has to be paid to the selection of candidates. Parties will be advised to study why some non BJP candidates won and use the inputs in selection of candidates.

Conclusion

Mr. Modi has proved to be a great leader with a large following among the masses. If he manages to control the Sangh Parivar, stop Chinese imports, protect Indian small and medium industries and create jobs, he could rule for the next 20 years. If the Sangh Parivar controls him, and if he fails to create jobs, who knows? I wish him well and every success.

Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. Democracy needs a strong and effective opposition and checks and balances. 75% majority in general election could enable BJP to amend the constitution and make India a Hindu Rashtra. This could lead to polarization on ethnic and religious lines and result in chaos. We the people of India will get what we deserve.

The advantage is with BJP. It is for it to make the best of it or lose it.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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