The NDA has become weak with its main allies like Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh
and Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu, parting it in this election. The UPA too has lost some of its allies like Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) in Bihar, and Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh
and Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS) in Andhra Pradesh. But on the other hand, the so-called Third Front initiative is gaining impetus from the smaller regional parties joining hands with the Left parties for a non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and non-Congress alternative government at the Centre. But this front too seems to be far away from the magical number for establishing a stable government.
This time we may witness the regional parties splitting the votes and causing more confusion and political instability. In Andhra Pradesh, the newly formed party of film actor Chiranjeevi would cut into both Congress and TDP votes and TRS too may gain some seats. In Tamil Nadu
this time there won’t be one-sided vote for ruling Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam (DMK), as the All India
Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has allied with Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) this time. In Karnataka
too its not going to be a one-sided show as the BJP has gained considerably here and JD (S) doing fairly well in recent elections in the state. In Bihar
and Uttar Pradesh there is going to be multi-angular contests and here too there is no one-sided show by any one party, therefore we may witness a fractured mandate.
The Congress and BJP would neither gain dramatically nor they would lose out utterly in their stronghold areas. However, it depends on who will emerge as the single-largest party, as it is likely affect many indecisive parties joining together with that party. In case, if both BJP and Congress end up with less number of seats, then we may witness a weak coalition government at the centre, supported by either Congress or BJP and perhaps we may head for mid-term polls sooner than later.