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Assembly election results 2018: What are the national trends?
After conclusion of the five assembly election results, there are many assertions. Most of the people say it's a 5-0 loss for the BJP. Some say Modi lost all the elections. Congress said, 'Change is coming and people are against BJP'. Interestingly many opposition leaders said that the national trend is against Narendra Modi. Is it so? Let's discuss.

Before that, let me honestly confess what was my prediction based on data I have received through opinion polls (although I used the data but deducing of the outcome is assessed by me). According to me, in Chhattisgarh and Telangana BJP and TRS will get comfortable margin.

In Rajasthan and MP there will be close contest where Congress and BJP will be in advantage stage respectively. Mizoram I thought would be hung assembly with advantage to NDA. I was really horrible wrong in Chhattisgarh like I was in Tripura. Rest are almost in the line with some deviation such as MP and Rajasthan remained a tight contest whereas Telangana and Mizoram was swept by favourites. 

Now let us find if there are any national trend. BJP is routed in Chhattisgarh where as Congress is routed in Mizoram. In Mizoram in fact Congress had 34 seats out of 40 seats that means it has 6/7th majority yet came down to just five seats. If Modi is responsible for rout in Chhattisgarh then who will be responsible for Congress rout in Mizoram? Isn't Rahul Gandhi by that logic if yes then what's national trend about it?

In Telangana, BJP wasn't a force. There was a Mahagthbandhan between Congress and TDP. The Gathbandhan seriously routed by TRS in Telangana. That means two contradictor party's alliance doesn't yield arithmetical addition. This was proved in West Bengal assembly 2016 election when Congress and Left had alliance. Now the fate of Congress-TDP alliance in upcoming Andhra assembly election 2019 is very doubtful because of another regional party YSRCP's presence. N.Chandrababu Naidu would be having sleepless night thinking should he really in alliance with Congress or not. Anyway these things are in the context of Telugu speaking states where BJP has no presence. Thus what's about the national trend in there?

In Rajasthan, Vasundhara Raje was very unpopular. People used to say 'Vasundhara teri khair nahin, Modi tujhse bair nahin'. In such a situation Congress still couldn't get the majority on its own and just stopped at 99 one short of majority. In MP too despite fifteen years of anti-incumbency Congress couldn't get majority and ended up with 114 seats, two short of majority. In vote share too BJP has 0.1% lead over Congress in MP and trailing by just 0.5% in Rajasthan. NOTA in Rajasthan is 1.3% and in MP it's 1.4%. NOTA is always considered as incumbent government's vote which is angry on government yet don't want to support the opposition. That means if those NOTA votes really supported BJP, it would retain both Rajasthan and MP. Point is simple, BJP lost Rajasthan and MP but Congress didn't win it. It is beneficiary of by default the alternative rallying point in the state where there's only two rivals. Thus it's just local factor that stumped BJP where as Congress couldn't win it by default because of again poor local Congress leadership. Thus what's about national trend in it?

That doesn't mean there are no direct message from these state assembly election to upcoming Parliament assembly elections. I will detail those through analysis in subsequent articles. However one important message I want to say here that public is now very smart. It is not going to fall in the trap of just speeches, alliances or strategies. It will only vote on two aspects. First is the intent of a party and second is how the particular candidate is connected to its constituency irrespective of the popularity of the leader. One example here will be suffice is Chhattisgarh. Raman Singh is most popular leader in Chhattisgarh. Congress don't have a face there. Yet BJP decimated there just because BJP MLAs taken Chhattisgarh people for granted. Vajpayee was popular yet lost the election because they thought Vajpayee's popularity will win those seats. The same happened in Chhattisgarh, MP, and Rajasthan etc.

Coming back to my conclusion, I don't see any national trend in these five assembly election as claimed by many. But then you just can conclude that Congress got some traction in BJP stronghold although BJP is not out of the game. Congress more weakened in areas where BJP isn't a player and decimated by parties that have leaning towards BJP or NDA.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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