The difference between Assembly vote share and Lok Sabha vote share of BJP is the Modi impact. That’s why I have pointed out that state leaders of BJP are cut off from the ground level and despite Modi craze, BJP wouldn’t get any benefit. The Lok Sabha projection as per this survey is BJD-10 to 16, Congress-3 to 9 and BJP-0 to 4.
One more thing must be realised that BJD is very strong in coastal belt where there are 13 seats out of 21. In southern and western Odisha, Congress has some presence. BJP has its presence all over Odisha and hence despite having a 25% vote share in Lok Sabha, it is not likely to get any seats. This survey also approves that Odisha votes differently for Assembly and Lok Sabha though last couple of elections went otherwise.
However, BJP still has a chance. If it can increase its vote share to another 4% to 5%, it can get astounding success in Odisha too. Odisha polity is neither stereo type nor Naveen Patnaik government is very popular; it just seeks a credible alternative. It may not be possible for Assembly success, but definitely the Lok Sabha success can be achieved if BJP central leadership focuses at least following points.
1) One central leader like Sushama Swaraj or Arun Jaitly need to camp here to lead and guide BJP workers. They need to forget assembly ambition and focus on Lok Sabha success.
2) Introduce clean candidates with clean image. Young candidates would be better. For this AAP method of online poll/SMS poll can be conducted.
3) Dharmendra Pardhan must return to Odisha polity as he is most popular BJP face of Odisha.
4) The old guards of Odisha BJP to be given assembly election charges with a simple instruction not to interfere in Lok Sabha campaigns.
5) Modi needs to do at least three rallies.
As a close follower of Indian polity and home-state polity I am sure, even though none can stop Naveen Patnaik at the moment from being elected as chief minister for fourth successive time, but BJP can get 10-12 seats for the 16th Lok Sabha.
Odisha people will vote BJD to power in Assembly election, because there is no alternative in state polity but would vote for Modi-led BJP for Parliament election, as they find Modi is very credible alternative in national polity subject to condition candidates are good and campaign focused on national polity without attacking state BJD government.
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