Changed equations in Indian polity
The women's reservation bill has brought forward some interesting scenarios of the Indian polity: An analysis
THE RECENT passage of the Women’s Reservation Bill in the upper house of the Parliament, or the Rajya Sabha, has brought forward some interesting scenarios for the Indian polity. The Women’s Reservation bill, one of the most controversial pieces of legislation to ever get passed in any house of the Indian Parliament was first tabled by the H.D. Devegauda Government in 1996. For the last 16 years it was tabled at least 8 times, including twice by the BJP led NDA government. The Indian political scenario is witnessing a fallout of this motion, as we have already seen, the three Yadav chiefs, (Lalu Prasad Yadav of RJD, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the SP, and Sharad Yadav of the JDU) The BSP led by Mayavati, the Trinamool Congress of Mamata Bannerjee going against the bill, alleging that the bill actually doesn’t represent the interest of the minorities and the backward classes of the society. RJD and SP also withdrew support from the present Congress led UPA government, though they also said that they are not going to go for a no confidence motion in the Lower house or the Lok Sabha, as they “do not have the numbers”.
It is interesting to note the gains of the major political parties. First, coming to the national parties, the party that is most likely to gain from this is the BJP. The BJP with its support to the bill, drove the Congress to a point of no return, an edge from where they couldn’t possibly come back without carrying forward with the bill. This policy of brinkmanship resulted in the Congress losing some of its major allies like the RJD and the SP, on whose support they drove through the last two general elections.
Also the BJP gained it’s respect as being the only national party that rose up to the occasion, and above petty politics and saw the National interest as paramount, without compromising it’s agenda of not giving any kind of reservation for the Muslims, thereby staying true to it’s own Hindu vote bank. The Left is also likely to gain, as they are eyeing the 2011 state elections, with its majority female reserve bench force. Also the Left took revenge on Lalu and Mulayam, who didn’t support their bid for third front in the last Lok Sabha elections. The Left also successfully tried to increase the gap between Congress and its biggest ally, the Trinamool Congress, who abstained from voting.
The Congress was in a no-win no-loss position. Though Sonia is trying to drive home the credit to its workers and party, for “realizing the vision of Rajiv Gandhi”, matter remains that Congress is in a back foot regarding the support of it’s allies, as other than the DMK, and the NCP, it was not much comfortable in driving through it’s view point to it’s other miffed allies. The Congress is in any case under lot of pressure for its poor floor management strategy, when 7 MPs of the opposition, from RJD, SP, and LJP were forcefully evicted out by the Marshals for trying to destroy a copy of the bill from the hands of the Chairman of the house, Hamid Ansari. Trinamool Congress, the major ally of the Congress, even accused the Government of “hobnobbing and playing into the hands of the Left”, and trying to “bulldoze its way through”.
The opposition of the bill, notably the SP, RJD, and Trinamool Congress were crying that the bill is not a clear representation of the Minority and the Backward Classes, and is elitist in nature. Frankly their arguments don’t have much ground. The bill gives the sole right to the political parties to choose its candidate, and if the political parties are so concerned about their minority electorates, they have every right to give the candidacy to the minority and backward class women. It is also Interesting to note, the position of the Trinamool Congress. Mamata Bannerjee is at loggerheads with the Congress regarding almost every policy that the UPA is taking, right from how to tackle the Maoists, Russian Nuclear Power plant at Haripur, Price rise, populism in Railway budget, to cutting of subsidies of the Railway ministry by the Finance ministry. Incidentally the West Bengal elections of 2011 will see some high level political turmoil if this continues. The JDU is also set to split between the pro-bill lobby of Nitish Kumar, and the anti-bill lobby of Sharad Yadav.
Only one silver lining that can be perceived is the rare political consensus between the three major political parties, who rose up for national interest and avoided the petty politics of the regional parties. If only this could happen more often!
The Congress was in a no-win no-loss position. Though Sonia is trying to drive home the credit to its workers and party, for “realizing the vision of Rajiv Gandhi”, matter remains that Congress is in a back foot regarding the support of it’s allies, as other than the DMK, and the NCP, it was not much comfortable in driving through it’s view point to it’s other miffed allies. The Congress is in any case under lot of pressure for its poor floor management strategy, when 7 MPs of the opposition, from RJD, SP, and LJP were forcefully evicted out by the Marshals for trying to destroy a copy of the bill from the hands of the Chairman of the house, Hamid Ansari. Trinamool Congress, the major ally of the Congress, even accused the Government of “hobnobbing and playing into the hands of the Left”, and trying to “bulldoze its way through”.
The opposition of the bill, notably the SP, RJD, and Trinamool Congress were crying that the bill is not a clear representation of the Minority and the Backward Classes, and is elitist in nature. Frankly their arguments don’t have much ground. The bill gives the sole right to the political parties to choose its candidate, and if the political parties are so concerned about their minority electorates, they have every right to give the candidacy to the minority and backward class women. It is also Interesting to note, the position of the Trinamool Congress. Mamata Bannerjee is at loggerheads with the Congress regarding almost every policy that the UPA is taking, right from how to tackle the Maoists, Russian Nuclear Power plant at Haripur, Price rise, populism in Railway budget, to cutting of subsidies of the Railway ministry by the Finance ministry. Incidentally the West Bengal elections of 2011 will see some high level political turmoil if this continues. The JDU is also set to split between the pro-bill lobby of Nitish Kumar, and the anti-bill lobby of Sharad Yadav.
Only one silver lining that can be perceived is the rare political consensus between the three major political parties, who rose up for national interest and avoided the petty politics of the regional parties. If only this could happen more often!
very informative and well written piece. its hard to say how much women will gain from the bill but its true that nothing is predictable in politics. politicians show different colours to gain the vote banks.
Good article with thorough analysis
I agree...the Women's Bill might have had a hard time waiting for its turn to be approved...but it sure has created history in Indian politics! BJP, Congress & Left Parties voicing one common opinion...the sanctioning of the Bill. United we stand....finally!!
I have to admit, I'm oh so curious about the after-math. It's only been a few days after the bill's been passed (and so much has happened already!)
I guess I'll have to watch this space eveyday!! ;-)
Great work, Sumantra! Informative, discriptive and perfectly analysed!! Couldn't have been better!!
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