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Despite escalation of tensions between US and North Korea, chances of World War-III still look remote
North Korea's deputy UN envoy on Monday warned that the situation in the Korean Peninsula 'has reached the touch and go point and a nuclear war may break out at any moment'.

Notably, a large scale military exercise between the US and South Korea using nuclear arsenal is conducted every year. Currently, during the exercise, mock evacuation of non-combative Americans out of South Korea, in the event of war and other emergencies, is being practiced. Although the US secretary of state is putting all-out efforts for a diplomatic solution despite USA President Donald Trump's discouraging tweets, still some experts are of the opinion that World War III may start at any moments. In fact, some experts have even opined that Russia and China will back North Korea while US will have NATO allies by its side.

According to experts North Korea has already acquired ICBM technology that can hit any part of America. There are also rumours floating that America is planning a covert operation to dislodge/kill North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un. Thus, if Kim Jong-un feels insecure, he wouldn't hesitate to fire a nuclear missile at America. Once that happens, United States is bound to retaliate and hence a nuclear war would commence.

However, I don't see a world war or a nuclear war happening in the coming days despite grand standing. According to me, South China Sea and East China Sea conflicts are the main issues between America and North Korea. I also consider North Korea as just a pawn with China being the main player.

The main stake holders of South China Sea are China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam. Whereas, in the East China Sea, the major players are China, Japan and South Korea. Through Chinese diplomacy, many other nations such as Cambodia, East Timor, Laos, Singapore and Thailand have either backed China or have remained neutral.

Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia albeit initially playedan ambivalent role, sometimes asserting and sometime falling in line with China, but countries like Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan have refused to be bullied by China.

Frankly speaking, China is not worried about all these countries because of its size and military might. China's main concern is American presence in the China Sea. No matter how strong China might be, but it totally understands the the American might. Taming the United States might not be possible for China.

China is using North Korea as a pawn in order to reduce or expel America from China Sea. North Korea can't survive a single day without support from China. Although China acts as per UN sanctions, but in reality, it controls North Korea's foreign affairs especially with America. This is known to America and Russia too. Somehow, Russia despite being a hard core rival of America is not supporting North Korea. While Russia asks America to negotiate with North Korea, it also supports sanctions against North Korea.

However, whatever may be the case, I don't think China could ever afford North Korea firing a nuclear missile at America. North Korea is part of Chinese mainland and subsequent retaliation by America will also damage China.

On the other hand, despite all enmity both Japan and South Korea will never want a nuclear war that could be catastrophic for them. That's why, they wouldn't support any covert operation against North Korean premier which might trigger a war.

I don't see an immediate solution to the conflict as none of the two parties is ready to compromise. But at the same time, I don't see any party escalating the conflict to the level of nuclear war as well. The standoff still will continue till all issues are resolved between China and America. But, until then, both sides will keep their empty guns pointed at each other.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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