DMK on the run, Jaya on the hot seat

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Thomas Kurien

11 May, 2011

If latest exit polls are anything to go by, the DMK, under attack by opposition parties for its involvement in the 2G spectrum scam, looks all set to be punished by voters in Tamil Nadu. Will AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa return to power?

AFTER A month-long anxious wait, political parties in Tamil Nadu will finally know the results of the Assembly polls, which witnessed a closely-fought electoral contest between the fronts led by the DMK and AIADMK. For Jayalalithaa, who gave her everything while canvassing in the polls, if she comes back to power, it will be after a five-year gap.

The Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) will be opened on May 13, and will unseal the fate of leaders including Chief Minister and DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi and his fierce political opponent AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa. Both parties, are keeping their fingers crossed that the ‘wave’ goes their way. Voters, too, will be looking to know the result of their endeavor, as they voted with much enthusiasm in the state elections. More than 75 per cent of voters in the state voted for 234 assembly seats.

“People in Tamil Nadu will give an intelligent verdict. As options are few, it seems Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK will derive full benefit from DMK’s many transgressions in the past four years,” said Professor Ashwin Mahapatra, who teaches political science in a central university, told this CJ.

The shape and direction of electoral outcome in Tamil Nadu is likely to be affected by the 2G spectrum allocation investigation in which charges have been filed by the CBI against two members of the ruling DMK, which is something that’ll have a substantial bearing on electoral results.

While former Telecom Minister A. Raja is in jail for his alleged involvement in the scam, the fate of Karunanidhi’s daughter and Rajya Sabha MP, Kanimozhi is hanging in balance till May 14, when a Delhi court will give its orders on her bail plea.

The DMK has been able to counter AIADMK and other parties with a counter-offensive when attacked on corruption charges – mostly because it has nothing to say and anything it says will only lead to the DMK digging a deeper hole for itself. None of the DMK leaders have built a persuasive case against Jayalalithaa and Vijayakant alliance.

There’s also the matter of future leadership and succession issues that DMK is embroiled in but has not come out with suggestions to deal with them. The voters’ verdict will very well be on DMK’s past as well as future prospects.

In effect, the state election in Tamil Nadu is about seeking alternatives or an alternative to DMK, and the only party that can fill DMK’s shoes is AIADMK – and if Vijayakant comes attached, so be it.

While DMK contested from 119 seats, AIADMK fielded candidates from 160 seats, and the DMK will be relying on the support of the Congress, which has promised power-sharing if DMK comes to power. AIADMK, out of its 160 seats, has allotted 42 seats to actor-politician Vijayakant's DMDK party.

Within the larger political overtones, mostly related to the 2G scam, of the assembly elections, is the undertone of ‘freebee elections’, a strategy tried and tested in Tamil politics. One of the most critical freebie weapons in this strategy is liquor, which is so freely distributed that Tamil Nadu has become the nation’s leading consumer of liquor.

Liquor freebies and liquor sales are a vicious circle that has engulfed Tamil Nadu politics. It’s in the interest of politicians to offer free alcohol to promote consumption, more consumption leads to increase in liquor sales, which results in more electoral revenue. Ironically, while the 2G spectrum scam has pre-occupied state and national consciousness, nobody pays attention to this dangerous and unhealthy trend of using alcohol to blackmail the electorate.

Though lately, from 2006 onwards the freebie has become more ‘welfare’ in nature. In 2006 the DMK manifesto promised free colour TVs to all households, and duly distributed 1.62 crore colour television sets. In 2011, the freebie power play reached a higher level. While the DMK in 2011 has promised women free mixies and grinders, the AIADMK has also promised fans.

In essence, the verdict on May 13 boils down to voter mood, freebies or no freebies. DMK hit a skier when it tripped in the 2G scam, and it seems Jayalalithaa, waiting patiently with outstretched hands, will catch it. If she does, the DMK will be shunted out of power and the Congress will lose an ally. As to who should take the blame - the Congress and DMK will have five years to introspect with ease while Jayalalithaa has a field day running Tamil politics surrounded by mixies, grinders, and fans.