WIDESPREAD DEFICIENCY of summer rains that constitute about 80 per cent annual rainfall has led to dire predictions of droughts in no fewer than 246 districts spread over 10 states. From June to mid August, when most planting takes place, the rains was 29 per cent lower than the average.
But the lessons that should have been learnt from experience of dealing with droughts of varying intensity over several decades remain as elusive as ever.
Droughts involve not just loss of agricultural output and food shortage. Hardships manifest in malnutrition, poverty, disinvestment in human capital and liquidation of assets with impairment of future economic prospects and in extreme cases, mortality, given lack of easy access to credit and insurance markets. That much of this devastation is avoidable is frequently refined over. As state governments and village institutions have key roles in organising and implementing relief measures, there are some pointers from a political economic prospective.
Analysis based on drought relief and voting patterns reveals that state government responsiveness is greater when the severity of crisis is greater. Also, voters punish incumbent politicians for crisis beyond their control. But voters also reward politicians for responding well in climatic events. So, incentives for effective drought relief are not important. (For instance in Bihar, voters rewarded the incumbent government after devastation of flood too. Hence, it seems that voters never do wrong alike politicians).
Even within a state, however, there are marked differences in the ability to prevent starvation deaths. Competitive local politics and decentralised structures of governance are crucial in preventing deaths. Specifically local political parties and vigilant village council’s act not are just as conduits of information on distress but also pressurise district administration to take appropriate action.
But, more importantly, drought- prevention through advances in agricultural research and technological choice might be effective.
Agriculture research intensity is estimated to be as low as 0.62 per cent in developing countries. In India, the corresponding estimate is even lower 0.29 per cent as against about 2.6 per cent in developed countries. However, considerable progress has been made in developing drought tolerant rice variety. Complementary crop management research for avoiding drought stress, better utilisation of available soil moisture and enhancing plants ability to recover rapidly from drought are likely to substantially enhance returns.
Technologies must display greater flexibility in crop choice and in the timing and quantity of various inputs. Current rice varieties and general crop management practices are so rigid in drought prone regions that they hardly change between normal years and early season drought. Rice technologies that allow for late transplanting in early season drought may change the implications of drought. Developments of technologies that reduce the severity of the impact of a late season drought are thus a priority.
Crop diversification is yet another drought coping option. In rain fed areas, for example, short duration rice varieties could facilitate planting of another crop using the residual moisture.
In recent years, emphasis has shifted to small–scale irrigation schemes and land used practices that generally enhance soil moisture and water retention. Recent advances in meteorology have contributed to greater accuracy in forecasting droughts. Moreover, a challenge is to match the scientific advance with better preparedness to deal with droughts. Along with technology, awareness for saving water among general parlance is more important.
The current situation of drought is not a repercussion of natural calamities. We have actually created it. Dried up lakes of Bhopal, unreasonable water lifting of ground water, wasteful water harvesting culture, illogical irrigation of water from rivers and ponds are some of examples of manmade devastations.
We may bypass the effect of drought and in this connection, technological help may be one of solutions but it is not permanent treatment. Ultimately resolution lies in our hand. We are actually the people who work out this predicament permanently if we desire.
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