El Nino might hamper the Indian monsoon season

20 June, 2012

El Nino may lead to a bad monsoon season, as it is expected to occur during the second half of the monsoon season, starting mid-July. Though there are instances when the monsoon season has not been affected by El Nino.

PEOPLE IN India have been longing for rains even as the country is experiencing a fierce summer this year. The hot summer has been taking a toll on the people especially in places such as Delhi, Kanpur, Bihar, and UP. Though monsoons are around the corner, there is also a possibility that the El Nino effect could wreack havoc with the monsoon in its mid to final phase.

El Nino is a weather condition, when there is an unusual kind of warming of the ocean's surface in the equatorial pacific region. Such type of weather effect can have a negative affect on the southwest monsoon in India, reported the Times of India. It has also been stated that the warm trend will stay for some months. If this is the case, then India might have to wait for the full monsoon to hit India.

Delay in monsoon in some regions or inadequate rainfall in parts of the country will affect timing of new agricultural sowing in the season, destroy crops or ruin them as the case may be. The Indian economy is still largely agrarian, and millions of farmers depend on timely and adequate rains through the monsoon to cultivate thier farms. Farm output determines the fate of millions of poverty-stricken farmers, and has a major role to play in GDP, inflation, and general economic health - even more so as the Indian economy has slowed down in the last year, and can't afford a weak or an over-strong monsoon.

As far as the El Nini effect, as such, is concerned, some believe that EL Nino, necessarily, does not mean a bad monsoon. Historical records prove it. One of the strongest EL Ninos occurred in 1997, but the monsoon was not bad during the time. But, the same cannot be said when it hit in 2002 and 2009, which led to a bad monsoon.