Delay in monsoon in some regions or inadequate rainfall in parts of the country will affect timing of new agricultural sowing in the season, destroy crops or ruin them as the case may be. The Indian economy is still largely agrarian, and millions of farmers depend on timely and adequate rains through the monsoon to cultivate thier farms. Farm output determines the fate of millions of poverty-stricken farmers, and has a major role to play in GDP, inflation, and general economic health - even more so as the Indian economy has slowed down in the last year, and can't afford a weak or an over-strong monsoon.
As far as the El Nini effect, as such, is concerned, some believe that EL Nino, necessarily, does not mean a bad monsoon. Historical records prove it. One of the strongest EL Ninos occurred in 1997, but the monsoon was not bad during the time. But, the same cannot be said when it hit in 2002 and 2009, which led to a bad monsoon.
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