From the day he broke 17 year alliance with NDA courtesy "Modi's anointment as Campaign Chief for election 2014" last year, it was already forecast by many political observers and analysts including the veteran Citizen Journalist Biranchi Narayan Acharya on this platform (his article in September Nitish Kumar's decision of exit from NDA will harm JD (U) in Bihar) that JD (U) was heading for a pitiable performance in Bihar during LS 2014.
The shambles of JD (U) that was reduced to 2 seats from 20 in 2009, more prominent being Party President Sharad Yada losing to RJD's Pappu Yadav, was the result of some seriously done series of miscalculations on the part of Nitish Kumar.
Nitish Kumar could have a big ego fight with NaMo but he could never have ignored the ground realities that clearly headed him to the state of uprooting of his just spouted bright political future with NDA. A justification for the merit of his act could have come only through a decent performance in the general elections, which is shattered by the horrible results.
The factors that lead the fiasco of JD (U) are:
Clearly Kumar's calculation were totally erroneous when he thought of getting Muslim votes projecting himself as a secular choice opposite to NaMo's perceived hard liner image. He forgot that with such an act he is actually entering into the territory of RJD, where in reality Lalu Yadav is a champion. He should have understood that following his past record (his tenure in NDA under Advani- a Hindutva mascot) the Muslims would never consider his secular reliability.
It was his "development" agenda against the jungle raaj of RJD that might have made Muslim-Yadav to desert Lalu in earlier elections and brought him into power but if "secularism" is an agenda then Lalu Yadav has more credentials than him.
Next point is, as they say that elections are won or lost at booth levels for which one needs ground level works. May be JD (U) is a party of leaders but not a party of cadres. It was the strong base of BJP and the ground work of its workers that was giving the tasty fruits of supremacy to Nitish Kumar. After breaking away from the NDA, he lost the base that was actually holding him. As a result his party's performance was badly impacted.
He could never have ignored the internal dissent in his party. None was supporting its split with NDA. The clatter was enough inside the party to be heard from outside. However, only for an over political ambition he lead to a creepy show for his party and himself as well.
Moreover, one important thing that made Nitish in particular and JD (U) in general a creeping creature in the context of LS 2014 is very very poor governance since last one year in Bihar. As the portfolios left vacant by the BJP MLAs were not properly smeared with new faces, there was a serious gap in administration that left people losing their faith in his good governing credentials. If UPA had a policy paralysis in the country then there was an administration paralysis in Bihar for sure. Furthermore he did a serious misreading the political wave that was prevailing across the country. Finally as the end result is seen Nitish Kumar is no more a CM now.
But I must say only for his egotistic needs, he has now put Bihar's development in jeopardy. And I honestly feel that had he been in harmony with NDA and Modi, the situation would have been much better giving scope for exploring the potentials of his own intellect and his party's integrity which would have benefited the people of Bihar in particular.
As once he had uttered that "Vinash Kale Viprit Budhhi" for NDA in context with anointing Modi as its face for election 2014, I think may be he had actually uttered that for himself.
The high political drama since last few days in Bihar ended with the announcement of the name of Jitan Lal Majhi as new CM candidate. Let the analysts and observers come up with future prospects of this adventure of him which will be surely interesting.
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