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General election 2019: A seat by seat analysis on why SP-BSP-RLD mahagathbandhan will not add up their vote banks
On 13th November 2018, my article 'SP-BSP Gathbandhan in UP is no guarantee that their vote banks will add up' was published in this platform where I disagreed the seat projections of C-Voters' opinion poll aired in Republic TV.

C-Voter contended that if there's an alliance between SP-BSP then their votes will be added up and the BJP will bear the burnt. The NDA despite getting 43.7% votes will end up with 31 seats whereas MGB with 44.7% votes will get 44 seats. It also speculated that UPA with 7.9% votes will get 5 seats. It also said that if all contest elections then BJP will retail all seats (73).

If we closely look that the vote shares are roughly equal to 2014 vote share. I also repeated in some subsequent articles that SP-BSP alliance will not arithmetically add up because of ideological difference & rivalry of the vote bank. I had given example of failure of Congress-Left alliance in Bengal, Congress-SP alliance in UP assembly & Congress-TDP alliance in Telangana. However many reader asked me for a logical analysis on facts/data of UP polity. Thus the below is an analysis with data from 2014 general election.

UP Elections 2014
UP Elections 2014
UP Elections 2014

The assumptions are as below.

1)      SP-BSP-RLD is in MGB.

2)      UPA is fighting separately.

3)      2014 vote share remains intact.

4)      Didn't considered bi-elections because the voter turnout is less. I also never believe that bi-poll has any bearing on general elections.

From the table I find out the following results undisputed.

1)      Congress is getting 2 seats (Amethi & Raibareli)

2)      SP-BSP surely retain 5 seats won by SP in 2014 which are (Firozabad, Mainpuri, Badaun, Kannauj & Azamgarh)

3)      I also separately kept 36 seats for (BJP-34 & AD-2) where SP-BSP-RLD combined vote share is less than NDA's vote share. Those are Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzzafarnagar, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Goutam Budha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, Hathras, Mathura, Agra, Etah, Bareilly, Pillibhit, Unnao, Lucknow, Pratapgarh, Farrukhabad, Kanpur, Akbarpur, Jalaun-Garautha, Hamirpur, Fatehpur, Phulpur, Barabanki, Faizabad, Gonda, Maharajganj, Gorakhpur, Kusinagar, Deoria, Bansgaon, Salempur, Varanasi, Mirzapur & Robertganj.

4)      In by-election the BJP lost Kairana, Phulpur & Gorakhpur. I didn't take those result in to account because point is if SP-BSP votes can be arithmetically added & thus I stick to 2014 general election result as C-Voters says the result will be same if all contest separately.

5)      Thus we will analysis seat by seat of balance 37 seats.

Here something must be understood.

1)      Unlike national parties like BJP & Congress, regional parties get votes fifty percent on party line & rest fifty percent on Candidates own followers.

2)      Shiv Pal Yadav has floated a party Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (PSP) going against Akhilesh Uadav.

3)      Those who knows UP politics well know very well that if a significant candidate of SP or BSP doesn't get a ticket, then he won't hesitate to contest as either rebel or join another party of his/her comfort. The polity as placed now, a SP rebel candidate will join PSP & BSP rebel candidate will join Congress. The opinion polls have not taken this in to account, I guess. By saying significant candidate means the candidate who polls at least 14-15%

Now let us go through each seats of Balance 37 seats.

Bijnor: Here SP+BSP+RLD combined had 48698 votes more than that of BJP. To whom the seat will be allotted? In 2009 the seat was won by RLD. BSP & SP polled here 281139 & 230124 votes respectively while RLD polled just 24348 votes. Now if RLD is allotted the seat then both SP & BSP candidate will join PSP & Congress respectively if not contest independently. Same case will happen if SP or BSP didn't get ticket from MGB. Thus 48698 difference is no way defendable.

Nagina: Here the MGB has the sizable vote difference of 153295 votes. But the problem is that SP & BSP polled 275435 & 245685 votes respectively. In 2009 BSP won the seat. Who would be given ticket? Do the candidate not getting ticket despite having more than 25% vote share will remain silent & accommodative?

Moradabad: MGB had 73441 votes more than BJP. In 2009 INC had the seat. SP & BSP polled 397720 & 160945 votes respectively. Seat should go to SP but BSP candidates vote share was 14.27%. What if he joins INC?

Rampur: Here MGB had 59571 more votes than BJP. SP had 335181 votes compared to BSP's 81006 votes. MGB should give ticket to SP candidate here as it had won the seat in 2009. But not to ignore that at the worst level of performance still Congress got 156466 votes (16.33% vote share).

Sambhal: Here MGB had 247466 votes more than BJP. But the problem is both SP (355068) & BSP (252640) polled significant vote share of 33.59% & 23.9% respectively. From Vote share SP should get the ticket but not to ignore that BSP won this seat in 2009.

Amroha: MGB had just 14308 votes more than BJP. RLD won the seat in 2009. SP & BSP polled 370666 (33.82%) & 162983 (14.87%) respectively. SP will get the ticket & BSP candidate will join Congress.

Baghpat: MGB got 131393 votes more than BJP. Interestingly SP, BSP & RLD polled 213609 (21.26%), 141743 (14.11%) & 199516 (19.86%) votes. Who will get the ticket? What will do the candidates who didn't get the ticket of MGB? In 2009 RLD had the seat & in 2014 it contested in alliance with Congress. Would you simply add the numbers ignoring Congress, PSP & rebellion from SP & BSP?

Fatehpur Sikri: MGB had got 64476 more votes than BJP. But then SP & BSP polled 213397 & 253483 votes respectively. BSP had the seat in 2009 thus BSP may get the ticket. But will the SP candidate having 22% vote share fall in line or join PSP?

Aonla: MGB had 51771 votes more than BJP. SP & BSP polled 271473 (27.26%) & 190200 (19.10%) votes respectively. MGB should give ticket to SP but BSP candidate likely join Congress. The 5.2% vote difference unlikely to sustain if BSP candidate rebels.

Shajahanpur: MGB had just 7384 votes. SP & BSP polled 242913 (21.49%) & 289603 (25.62%) votes respectively. In 2009 SP had won the seat where as in 2014 BSP was placed second. Who will get the ticket from MGB & what will the candidate not getting ticket will do? Will he fall in line or try to join PSP or Congress because of significant 2014 vote share?

Kheri: MGB had 49838 votes more than BJP. SP & BSP polled 160112 (14.85%) & 288304 (26.75%) votes. Ideally BSP should get the ticket. But then the seat was won by Congress in 2009 & in 2014 when the party is at its worst performance still managed to get 160112 (14.85%) votes. Thus before adding these numbers need to be deliberated.

Dhaurahra: MGB has 107707 more votes than BJP. But then SP & BSP has polled around same votes. SP polled 234032 (22.07%) & BSP polled 234682 (22.13%) votes. Who will get MGB ticket? Interestingly Congress had won the seat in 2009 & in 2014 it also polled significantly 170994 votes with vote share of 16.13%.

Sitapur: MGB had 105134 votes more than BJP. SP & BSP polled 156170 (15.21%) & 366519 (35.69%) respectively. This was BSP seat in 2009 & ideally the ticket should be issued to BSP. How much damage will be done if SP candidate joins PSP?

Hardoi: Here MGB had 195200 more votes than BJP, an impressive 20.06% more vote share. But then the problem is both SP & BSP polled around same votes [SP-276543 (28.42%), BSP-279158 (28.69%)]. SP had the seat in 2009 but BSP was placed second in 2014. Who will get the ticket? Will not having 28% vote share, the candidate not getting ticket will jump to either Congress or PSP?

Misrikh: MGB had 107396 more votes than BJP. SP & BSP had polled 194759 (19.51%) & 325212 (32.58%) votes respectively. BSP won it 2009 & placed second in 2014, thus it will get the ticket. SP candidate having roughly 20% vote share will definitely join PSP.

Mohanlalganj: MGB had 96950 votes more than BJP. But the votes polled by SP & BSP are 242366 (21.70%) & 309858 (27.75%) respectively. SP had the seat in 2009 where as BSP was second in 2014. Thus ticket dilemma & rebellion will be there automatically.

Sultanpur: MGB had 49242 votes more than BJP. Problem here is also same because SP & BSP polled approximately same votes. SP had polled 228144 (23.63%) votes & BSP got 231446 (23.98%) votes. Interestingly Congress won the seat in 2009. Who will get vote & will not be there a rebellion when a candidate doesn't get vote especially when PSP & Congress ready to accommodate the rebel.

Etawah: MGB had just 19858 votes more than BJP.  SP & BSP polled 266700 ((28.38%) & 192804 (20.51%) votes. Depending upon 2009 result & 2014 position SP should get the ticket. But BSP candidate having more than 20% vote share, will he not jump to Congress? Is this 19858 excess vote sustainable?

Jhansi: Here MGB has just 23325 votes where SP & BSP's votes polled are 385422 (29.18%) & 213792 (16.19%). The seat was held by Congress in 2009 & in 2004 it also polled 6.37% votes. Now who will get the ticket from MGB & what will the one will do who didn't get ticket?

Banda: MGB had 73942 votes more. It was a SP seat but BSP placed second with 226278 (26.35%) votes sending SP (189730, 22.10%) to third position. Tickets perhaps will be given to BSP & SP candidate will move to PSP.

Kaushambi: MGB had impressive 158422 more votes. But issue is that SP (288824, 31.72%) & BSP (201322, 22.11%) polled more than two lac votes. Thus the rebel candidate likely to move towards PSP or Congress.

Allahabad: Here MGB polled 100064 votes more than BJP. SP with 261763 votes remain second. But BSP & Congress too polled 162073 & 102453 votes respectively. Thus the issue can be very well gauged.

Ambedkar Nagar: MGB had 95038 votes more but the issue is again that SP (234467) & BSP (292675) polled almost same. Who would be given ticket?

Bahraich: MGB had just 1259 votes more. Here SP got 336747 votes compared to BSP's 96909 votes. Thus SP should get the ticket as BSP doesn't have a base. But it was Congress's seat in 2009 & MGB has very slender lead against BJP. Thus if Congress get some of BSP votes then BJP will be still winner.

Kaiserganj: MGB had 68508 votes more. SP & BSP had 303282 (32.15%) & 146726 (15.55%) votes. BJP had won this seat from SP in 2014. But with nearly one & half lack votes BSP candidate most likely to be a rebel one.

Shrawasti: MGB got 108977 votes. SP & BSP polled 260051 (26.53) & 194890 (19.88%) votes respectively. Interestingly PECP too polled 101817 votes & in 2009 INC won this seat. However I think even if BSP candidate rebel still MGB might win this seat because of Muslim vote bank that was with PECP likely to back MGB.

Domariyaganj : MGB had 71190 votes more but SP & BSP polled 174778 (18.69%) & 195257 (20.2%) votes respectively. It was Congress seat in 2009 & here too PECP polled impressively 99242 seats. However if it was MGB then BSP would have got ticket & PECP votes might be transferred even if SP candidate rebels. Thus MGB might be benefitted here.

Basti: MGB had an impressive 250185 more votes than BJP. But the issue is again both SP & BSP equally polled very impressive numbers 324118 (30.91%) & 283747 (27.06%). BSP had the seat in 2009 where as SP placed second in 2014. Who will be given ticket & where will the rebel will move?

Sant Kabir Nagar: MGB too polled very impressive 142191 votes more. Then issue remain same as SP & BSP polled significantly 240169 (23.73%) & 250915 (23.73%) respectively. Who will get ticket & where the rebel will move?

Lalganj: This has also same issue. MGB had 170883 more votes but polling of SP & BSP were 260930 (29.01%) & 233971 (26.01%). BSP had the seat in 2009 where as SP became second in 2014. Who's getting ticket & who would be rebel?

Ghosi: MGB had 19878 more votes. SP & BSP had polled 165887 (15.95%) & 233782 (22.48%) votes respectively. Another player QED polled 166436 (16.01%) votes. With such a slender lead can the MGB get their votes arithmetically added when SP candidate joins PSP?

Ballia: Here the MGB polled just 2250 more votes. QED has an impressive vote share of 17.4% (163943 Votes) whereas SP & BSP polled 220324 (23.38%) & 141684 (15.04%) votes respectively. The MGB will change the equation as rebel will join either in QED or Congress.

Jaunpur: MGB had 33693 votes more. SP & BSP polled 180003 (17.87%) & 220839 (21.93%) votes respectively. BSP should get the ticket & SP candidate may join PSP.

Machhlishahr: MGB's difference with BJP is just 19232 votes. SP & BSP polled 191387 (19.18%) & 266055 (26.66%) votes. SP had the seat in 2009 but BSP placed second in 2014? Who will get the ticket?

Ghazipur: MGB had an impressive 209193 more votes than BJP. But problem is same as SP & BSP both had polled significantly with 274477 (27.82%) & 241645 (24.49%) votes respectively.

Chandauli: MGB had 47389 more votes. SP & BSP votes were 204145 (20.82%) & 257379 (26.25%). SP had the seat in 2009 where as BSP placed second in 2014. Who'll get the ticket?

Bhadoi: MGB had impressive 80571 votes more but SP & BSP again had significant votes as 238712 (24.30%) & 245554 (25%). Thus who doesn't get ticket will definitely be rebel. 

Caveat:

I expressly say that 2019 election will be different from 2014 election. There will be at least 10% new voters. Then Congress, Shivpal Yadav are although anti-Modi, they also fight for their survival in the state. I wouldn't be surprised if there would be Congress-PSP-QED-PECP alliance. In that case there would be a triangular contest between alliances. Personality also has a role. Apart from Narendra Modi, Akhilesh Yadav, Mayawati & Mulayam Singh, Priyanka Gandhi too will play an important role. Thus you just can't analyse UP election 2019 with the figures of 2014.

I did this analysis to prove that the Psephologists shouldn't arithmetically add SP & BSP votes considering 2014 election result. The real analysis would be based on demographic dynamics, personalities & other issues. That analysis will be done in some other article. However just adding voting percentage of SP & BSP if the pollsters find their numbers in UP, then they are doing a great blunder.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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