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General Election 2019: It wouldn't be surprising if the BJP gets a majority on its own!
Most of the final opinion polls have come out in the last couple of days. Some of the prominent opinion polls are given below in a tabular format. It might be noted that all the opinion polls are giving the NDA advantage and except for C-Voter, all other pollsters are predicting a clear majority for the NDA government on May 23.
 Opinion Poll 2014  
Pollster  NDA    UPA    Others 
 NDTV-Hansa Research  275  111 157
CNN-IBN-Lokniti-CSDS  236-246  111-123  174-198 
 ABP News-Neilson 236 92 215
 Timesnow-Cvoter 227 101 215
    Opinion Poll 2019
 Pollster NDA UPA Other
 Timesnow VMR 279 149 115
 India TV CNX 275 126 142
 Jan Ki Baat 310 122 111
 ABP-Cvoter 267 142 137
 Newsnation 278 128 137

However, the point to be noted is that in the run up to the general election 2014, most of opinion polls although gave NDA an advantage but just one opinion poll had given the NDA a clear mandate of 275 seats.

Opinion Poll 2014

In 2014, actual results were that NDA got 336, UPA got 60 and others got 142 seats. Thus, it can be said that 2019 opinion polls are also indicating the same way like that of 2014 general election. Even according to the BJP members, in 2019, the NDA will better its 2014 numbers. Question is whether it's possible.

Natural argument will be that the BJP is facing 5 years of anti-incumbency. I agree to it. It may lose some seats in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra etc. (I am leaving UP at the moment). At the same time, we must not forget that Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka also are facing anti-incumbency. In all these places the BJP has emerged as a strong player. Thus, the BJP's idea is to make up for the losses in these states along with North-East. It's alliance with the AIADMK, PMK and MDMK in Tamil Nadu to make up some losses. In Bihar too, it has allied with another strong regional party the JD(U). So, barring UP, the NDA should maintain its 2014 tally in rest of the country. The UPA will gain some seats but then others will lose seats.

What will happen in UP? This answer also leads to the fact whether the BJP will get majority on its own or not. I have already written many articles that the MGB is not likely to succeed because the alliance is between contradicting ideologies. Like Congress-Left, Congress-SP and Congress-TDP failed in Bengal, UP and Telangana assembly elections, MGB is likely to fail in UP because of inherent rivalries among vote banks.

To support this, Yashwant Deshmukh of C-Voters said yesterday in Republic TV, that despite his team's calculation based on the data, he is not confident on UP predictions. According to him either the BJP will be decimated (up to 10 seats) in UP or will secure more than 60 seats. I can understand what he says. He means that if there is a true transfer of vote banks of SP and BSP to each other's candidate then the BJP will be nowhere. If that doesn't happen the MGB will be nowhere.

Jan Ki Baat's chief pollster (Pradeep Bhandari) said that according to his survey, Yadavs are not going to vote for the BSP candidate and SCs are not going to vote for the SP candidates. Then there are rebel candidates. VMR poll-chief said yesterday that non-Jatav SCs and non-Yadav OBCs are going to BJP even in larger numbers than that of 2014. Then many started seeing that Congress under Priyanka Gandhi is not able to take away upper caste votes from BJP but definitely denting Muslim and SC vote banks of MGB.

Yesterday, one of my friends said that irrespective of practicability, Congress's NYAY scheme may benefit the Congress a lot. I don't think so. NYAY might be for the poorest of poor, but this community generally votes either as per their cast or tribe line or for some immediate benefits which all parties are ready to provide. On the other hand, the middle class is totally distancing itself from the Congress and its present and future allies fearing of tax burdens to fulfil the NYAY scheme.

In conclusion, I would say that the NDA is returning to power without any doubt. But then, I won't be surprised if the BJP also gets majority on its own provided it is able to get 60 or more seats from UP.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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