Submit :
News                      Photos                     Just In                     Debate Topic                     Latest News                    Articles                    Local News                    Blog Posts                     Pictures                    Reviews                    Recipes                    
  
General Election 2019: Maharashtra is a tough nut to crack for both the BJP and the UPA
Maharashtra has 48 MP seats making it the second largest state with respect to Parliamentary seats. The state's election results will be decisive in formation of the central government.

There are four major parties in Maharashtra namely the BJP, the Shiv Sena, the Congress and the NCP. Although in the 2014 general election the BJP-SS and Congress-NCP had fought in alliance (NDA versus UPA) but all these parties fought separately in the 2014 Assembly election. Interestingly, their vote shares in Parliamentary elections as well as the Assembly elections were almost same. Below are their vote-share details:

SL No

Party name

LS vote share 2014

Assembly Vote share 2014

1

BJP

27.3%

27.8%

2

Shiv Sena

20.60%

19.3%

3

INC

18.10%

18%

4

NCP

16%

17.2%

Let's assume that same vote share remains for each party. The Congress and the NCP are in alliance for the 2019 general election. Both parties' vote banks are completely transferable. Thus, they are likely to achieve around 35 per cent votes. If the BJP and the Shiv Sena had been fighting independently then the BJP could have managed another 5-6 per cent to win some seats, say 15-16 on its own but the Shiv Sena would have been decimated. The Shiv Sena understood this but was still hell bent on abusing BJP. Many in the BJP thought that if the BJP contests alone, there would be division in the Shiv Sena and the BJP could further add around 10 per cent votes, retaining its 2014 tally while the UPA would have got around 23-25 seats from this state. That's why perhaps the BJP top brass thought it right to bring the Shiv Sena back showing extra-ordinary flexibility by offering them more seats than the 2014 general election.

Whether it is right or wrong only time will tell. Some of my friends are apprehending that the BJP's vote bank may completely transfer to the Shiv Sena candidates whereas there might be secrete instructions to the Shiv Sena cadres from the Shiv Sena Chief not to transfer the party's votes to the BJP. This might be for two reasons. First, the Shiv Sena would want that the BJP shouldn't have a majority on its own so that it can dictate its terms to the Central government. Second is to bargain for the CM's post in the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly election.

Frankly, I don't know what the Shiv Sena's gambit is as after declaration of the alliance Shiv Sena's mouth piece Samna has been criticising the Modi government. But then, for the BJP it's a risk worth taking. But the fact remains that the BJP is in a soup in Maharashtra. Despite all pollsters' predictions, Maharahstra might be a tough nut to crack for the BJP.

On the other hand the Congress-NCP too will find it difficult in this election as small parties and independents have around 20 per cent vote share. As Prakash Ambedkar's 'Bharipa Bahujan Mahasngha', SP and the BSP are contesting independently. These small parties might have over-all less than one per cent vote share each but they have strong impact on few seats. The internal feuds in the NCP as well as rebels in the Congress are other headaches. Over all this general election is also very tough for the UPA.

The bottom line is how both alliances will finally be able to win voters' support that will only decide who the winner of Maharashtra is. I would suggest pollsters to predict anything considering 10 per cent error margin instead of the standard 3 per cent error margin as the situation has become very unpredictable due to complex politics.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
COMMENTS (0)
Guest
Name
Email Id
Verification Code
Email me on reply to my comment
Email me when other CJs comment on this article
}
Sign in to set your preference
Advertisement
merinews for RTI activists


Advertisement
Not finding what you are looking for? Search here.