IF CONGRESS won in Karnataka, it was believed in party circles, elections to the Lok Sabha would be advanced. But Congress did not succeed in Karnataka to the extent it hoped it would. The electoral loss is being blamed on factors like price rise and inflation. But if the Congress Party cannot hold the price line, it will suffer a setback at the Lok Sabha elections too. It is in this backdrop the Congress leadership is trying to schedule the Lok Sabha elections. But the cloud has a silver lining. A normal monsoon has been forecast. This implies that the price of food grains and other essential commodities will decline around September, 2008. Coupled with the fact that the government is fighting inflation from the fiscal side, monetary side and supply side, the Congress Party is convinced that prices of food grains and other essential commodities will come down, leading to fall in inflation.

The term of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the Centre expires only in May 2009. But April marks the commencement of the lean period of the economy in our country. In the normal course, prices begin to spiral upward from April for this reason. This implies that if the Congress Party waits until May next to go to the polls, it has to incur the wrath of the electorate. Additionally, assembly elections are due in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Delhi, shortly. If in these states too the Congress Party draws a blank, a la Karnataka, it will affect the prospects of the Congress Party at the Lok Sabha elections. This has convinced the Congress leadership that the earlier the party decides on advancing the Lok Sabha elections, the better.

Many senior Congress leaders have reportedly opined that Lok Sabha elections had better be scheduled for December, 2008. After all, it should be possible for the party to hold the price line by September, 2008, since monsoon is not likely to fail. Thus, if the Lok Sabha election is scheduled for December, 2008, the opposition will be denied any opportunity to fault the government on the issue of price rise.

Yet another view gaining ground is that if the Lok Sabha elections and assembly elections (in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Delhi) are held simultaneously any reverse that the Congress Party may suffer in the said states will not affect its chances at the Lok Sabha elections.

The Left parties have reportedly told the Congress that it will be right to hold the Lok Sabha elections between November 2008 and January 2009. The Congress Party is examining the pros and cons of holding the Lok Sabha elections in December, 2008. Only a handful of the party’s senior leaders oppose holding the elections in December, 2008. But parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) are opposed to holding the Lok Sabha elections in December, 2008. It is believed in informed circles, all the same, that the Congress leadership is inclined to hold the Lok Sabha elections in December, 2008.

On its part, the Congress Party has been seriously exploring the possibility of establishing an alliance with the Samajwadi Party. Such an alliance, the Congress party believes, will help it in bagging more seats in UP, Bihar, Uttrakhand and Maharashtra. The consensus that is evolving is that it is advisable to hold the Lok Sabha elections in December, 2008. A decision on the subject will be taken at the party’s Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting scheduled for next month.

Meanwhile, as if to rub salt into Congress Party's wounds, All India Trade Union Congress (AITUC) general secretary Gurdas Dasgupta said in Coimbatore today that price rise had affected people badly. In the circumstances, if the price of petrol and diesel were raised, prices of essential commodities would go up and the common man would have to face hardship. It would affect the Congress Party badly. His party would vehemently oppose rise in the prices of petrol and diesel. His party’s leadership would have to review its support to the Central government if prices of the said commodities were raised. He said that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won in Karnataka because of the Congress party’s failure. Finance Minister Chidambaram deserved to be honoured with bouquet and sweets for making BJP’s victory possible in Karnataka, added Gurdas Dasgupta sarcastically.