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How to prevent Puri from a prospective stampede disaster?
Prevent Puri from turd tyrannize terrorisms. ‘Will-wit-wisdom’ complex of the ‘best-of-breed’ administrator is put to rigorous test to minimize collateral damages and causalities in possibilities of terror attack. Prospective stampede disaster mitigation mathematical modeling study is the only way to save terrorist attack in Puri. Through this mathematical modeling study the government can prevent and save the other large crowded areas like Puri’s Car Festival.

In 2010 Government of India had discussed about this stampede disaster mitigation model in a top bureaucratic meeting and since then it was in cold storage. “The Government and Home Ministry did not discuss it further,” says Manas Ranjan Mishra, an expert on this issue. Now Lord Jagannath temple and Puri is under threat of terror attack, so Home Ministry should come forward for a discussion on the pros and cons of this stampede disaster mitigation mathematical modeling study.

Lord Jagannath’s Rath Yatra (Car festival) of Puri, Odisha is an exemplary model owing to the record assembly of 12 lakh devotees flocking a 2 km long stretch of 100m wide road. Such assembly has been absolutely regular since about 1000 years with ever increasing buildup of the assembly year after year of late there is a steep rise in the same trend in as much as from 4 lacs in 1992 to 12 lacs in 2010.

Further, within the month of celebration, in July usually, about 2 crores of devotees flock to the identical venue with the numbers swelling on about 5 occasions. The same rituals are repeated in various parts of Orissa and the globe. Similar festivals are also seen in many parts of the globe and the SDMMM model would be applicable to all these festivals of unidirectional human flows with inputs of the specifics of the problem.

A stampede prevention model is very important for today’s lives. Democracy rejoices in the convergence of objectives. Further, larger the conglomeration of humans, so much is the consensus for the cause, as much is the ease for adjudication for matters of governance. Administration reclines inadvertently on the imminent crisis as if it is a comfort zone. In this human – orchestrated – crisis the reliance is on the skill and aptitude of the administrator. ‘Will-wit-wisdom’ complex of the ‘best-of-breed’ administrator is put to rigorous test to minimize collateral damages and causalities.

‘Stampede’ is the most urgent disaster that confronts the conglomeration apart from other wanton awaiting disaster e.g. criminality, contagious diseases, asphyxiation, dehydration, heat stroke, fire disaster etc. Further, the ensemble of human works on one or more objectives which tend to be parameters to the ‘stampede-disaster-mitigation-mathematical-model’. ‘Single objective’ approach is a heavily simplified workable model to start with. Handling the Cause and interactive model for stampede is important.

Stampede may be based on tangible or intangible basis or cause. Further the time evaluation of such ‘basis’ can lead to precious coordination and control. Whereas both the reactants and ‘products’ of such a ‘reaction’ need be parameterized, the above mentioned SDMMM modeling seems to drift away from palpability of the industrial mathematician even at the stage of time-independent intangible basis such as rumors  etc. Again there seems to be very little choice for the victim (a member of the ensemble) at the farther end epicenter where causalities mount over time. Thus a ‘single basis’ approach is a hugely simplified workable model to initiate attempts at solving the complex problem.

Manas Ranjan Mishar clames, “Whereas phenomenological and empirical modeling may seem academic to start with, administrator’s adaptations to the model along with evaluation of the same seem to be the best way out. Again, the model is subject to factors like ethnicity which loom large over the entire gamut of the problem. This throws the ball to the administrator’s side to adopt with the model with proper feedback loops and fuzzy-logic approaches to the problem of decision making. Further the model shall be more of a confirmatory in nature to the overall prudent decision making of the administrator in real time. Thus the model is highly interactive in as much as both the input and the output are heavily dependent on human synergy with the model.”

Mishra says further, “Studies could focus on digital image processing of GIS/aerial images taken of the textual data advancing of devotees along different in roads to the venue over a few days. Such studies are valuable for health hazards. More specific studies on stampede mitigation can be held on the peak car movement time. Valuable wavelet theory of the car train with signal / noise approach on envelop of known non-hazardous inputs from yester years. Thus simulation studies could lead to valuable results of tendencies leading to a check-and-balance approach to the passing of orders by marshals handling the even in real-time.”

Whereas a time-dependent study of the movement train of finite number of cars can be modeled much as a train of wave-pulses, the time-independent study of the problem suggests modeling of the likes of formulations for Bragg diffraction studies of semi-conductor multilayer / super-lattices. Furthermore, the time-independent study can be dealt as viable and absolute once the preceding time-dependent study has been implemented in its letter and spirit largely.

Wavelet theory, soft computing algorithms, fuzzy-logic, signal and image processing tools all seem unavoidable along the road to a final blue print to the model which is challenging but never the less promising and most importantly worthy of approach. A thread bare understanding on the actual problem based on mostly social, political, cultural, behavioral, etc details opens up room for much larger studies. The problem compounds with the passage of time due to increase of population which is pouring in members to this ensemble as also the increase in trends of increased flocking to spiritual sites plausibly owing to social insecurities.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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