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IAF strikes biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot: Why Pakistan will not dare a war against India?
On Sunday, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan once again pleaded to the Indian Prime Minister saying, 'Give peace a chance'. Little did he know that a dozen IAF Mirage 2000 jets would be pounding terror camps across the LoC barely a few hours later!

Although he had said that Pakistan will retaliate if India carries out a military offensive action against Pakistan, one can understand that Pakistan in no way can afford a war against India. Thus, post this military action by India to avenge Pulwama, Pakistan will most likely not retaliate or escalate the conflict into a full blown war.

Pakistan in the meantime has re-enforced the ban on Hafiz Saeed's JuD and taken over the JeM headquarters. Masood Azhar has been sent under-ground. All this has been done for two reasons. First Pakistan's continuing in grey list of FATF and Indian retaliation on both the organizations. Election or no election, the world knows that once Modi commits, he will definitely do it.

There are many reasons why Pakistan is not in a position to go to war with India.

First, let us remove the chances of a nuclear war. Pakistan knows that India too is a nuclear power and if Pakistan initiates a nuclear war it would be wiped off the world map. Then, Pakistan only has tactical nuclear weapons which are small scale nuclear weapons capable of affecting only a limited area. These tactical nuclear weapons might be used in remote areas especially in the POK or Siachen but will not have any serious consequences. Furthermore, Pakistan also stands the risk of being imposed with sanctions from countries the world over and its nuclear stock pile being ceased and taken away.

Also, Pakistan's economic condition is not suitable for a war. It can't sustain a war with a power like India for long. Some experts have said that it will take India a maximum of 7-10 days to defeat Pakistan.

However, the bigger danger for Pakistan in case of a war with India is its disintegration. As Zulfiqar Shah has aptly put in two of his articles in this platform 'Pakistan-All roads Lead to the 1940 Lahore resolution or the collapse'  and 'Pakistani Provinces are legally countries of Pakistan'.

There's dissent and cessation mentality among all provinces but Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are seeking independence from Punjab dominated Central rule. It's just the Army that is somehow managing to hold these dissenting provinces together but the people of these provinces along with PoK have become rebellious to a degree which can't be controlled anymore. A spark will ignite a civil war inside Pakistan. Thus, in case there's a war between India and Pakistan, it will not unite Pakistani but rather divide the country with all the provinces supporting India and demanding their independence from Pakistan. That would be a huge risk for Pakistan Army as well as their Central government because that will spell the end of Pakistan.

That's why despite Pakistan's strong rhetoric, take it granted that Pakistan will not dare to retaliate India's military action to avenge Pulwama. Pakistan will now be more interested in intervention by the international community to interfere and broker some peace formula. But the problem is that Pakistan is in a catch-22 situation with entwined relations between the army, the civilian government and the fundamentalists read terrorists. I wonder whether Pakistan would be able to fulfill the obligations put forth by the international community like putting a complete end to its terror factories.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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Pakistan was depending too much on Chinese support. But economic slow down of Chinese economy has raised a toll in China. Expectation of peoples uprising has made chinese leadership worrying.In such scenario it is economically preferable for China to be with INDIA as Pakistan will be permanent bundle on their shoulder. As the feeling goes if China tries to engage India in Eastern front international community will come forward to help India. Analysis has shown Indian army has superiority over Chinese army. So why calling a problem. Pakisthan Prime Minister is a puppet in the hands of Army. The Jawans of Pakistan army has developed anguish over using them as dolls in the hands of the leaders. Comparing the benefits Indian personnel gets they get peanut. This feeling is well known to the leaders. Statement made by them shows their weakness. To gear them up a story of capturing two pilots and bringing someone in front of media is a mere stunt. It has a similarity with the Last days of Saddam Hussein of Iraq where his spokesman even before escaping was talking big. If really our pilots have been captured pakistan should disclose their names and details as per Geneva convention guideline. However in the back of my heart I am feeling it as a mere drama enacted just to pacify public anger. In BBC and another TV interview with locals it has been shown that there were no casualty no significant damages. Similarly Pakistan says it did not attack civilian area but simply destroyed arms depot. So it looks like a duck game. Anyway time will bring out the truth.
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