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If Samajwadi Party splits then BSP will be decimated in UP
"If Samajwadi Party (SP) would split, who's going to benefit?" this question was asked by one of my friends. I said, the SP is not going to split at all, but if its split then Congress would be benefited and BSP will be decimated. Here's how?

Let's revisit the recent status and strength of major parties. For BJP, it's getting 20% of upper caste votes, BSP getting 20% of SC votes whereas the SP, despite all the problems, is getting 20% of OBC votes (including 9% Yadav votes).

The Congress unfortunately has no vote bank left. After Rita Bahuguna's exit, it also lost whatever (1-2%) upper caste votes were expected to go in its favour. Here one should note that Rita Bahuguna Joshi's joining BJP is not going to benefit BJP at all, but her exit from the Congress will affect the Sonia Gandhi-led party.

Now, there are 20% Muslim votes and 20% balance OBC votes for which the parties namely BJP, Congress and BSP will fight for. BJP is set to get a minimum of 10% balance OBC vote (even if its performance is worse than 2014). Thus it increases it's percentage up to 30%. Rest 10% of OBC votes will eyed by all.

In such a scenario 20% (19.6% to be exact) minority votes becomes decisive. As Muslims are dissatisfied with SP, they are likely to move towards the Congress. But the Congress doesn't have that strength to stop BJP. Thus they have only two option left i.e. SP and BSP. They are also not happy with BSP because of BSP's past record. But then many Muslims are mulling to support BSP to stop BJP. Mayawati too is harping on this minority votes. If she would be able to bag this vote bank fully, she would be the clear winner.

But if the SP witnesses division within, then the Congress will not spare even a moment to declare its full hearted support to Akhilesh Yadav. In fact, the Congress is in search of a Bihar like formula.

In that case, entire minority votes will rally behind Akhilesh-Congress-JDU making it a possible wining alliance. The alliance may win or may not, but at least the BSP will be decimated as with just 20% SC votes she will be nowhere in UP polity. Thus BSP must be praying that there shouldn't be any division in the SP.

I have already said that there would be no split in the SP. The drama has been enacted to give public a message that Akhilesh is a no-nonsense leader and he was in fact not allowed to work properly. His emotional speech was brilliantly recorded in mobile phones and later aired through channels with a purpose. A son can speak to a father emotionally, but in public it was delivered for a purpose as believed by some including me.

Although there is no confirmation while I am writing this article, but I am sure all the sacked ministers will be re-inducted and all the expelled party leaders will be re-accommodated. BSP would feel relieved and the Congress will be very frustrated.

What about the BJP? I don't think BJP is going to win the election without a credible CM face. It may increase its seats to some extent but winning the election is just a day-dreaming. 

What BJP must realise is that surgical strike, nationalism, Ram Museum, Mandir politics and all such other stunts are good for rallies and speeches, but nowadays in assembly elections voters first analyse the CM. However, the BJP is yet to declare its CM candidate. In this regard, both Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati are much ahead.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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