Impact of climate change on India
For a developing country like India who's ecological and socioeconomic systems are already under pressure, rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic growth also play a part in the changing climatic patterns.
THE LATEST climate change scenarios and projections for India have predicted: a 2.5 to 5 degree rise in annual mean surface temperature by the end of the century, with a higher temperature rise in the northern parts of the country; change in precipitation patterns, with extreme precipitation especially over the Western coast and west central India; increase in extreme minimum and maximum temperatures with summer temperatures increasing by about 2 degree Celsius in the 2050s and about 3 degree Celsius in the 2080s and winter temperatures similarly increasing by 3.2 degree Celsius during the middle of this century and by 4.5 degree Celsius towards the end of this century. Some of the expected impacts of climate change on India are: A general reduction in the quantity of available run-off is predicted. Intensified water stress is expected especially as arid and semi-arid regions such as the north-western part of the country are already vulnerable to water stress. Alterations in the hydrological cycle would lead to intensified flooding and more severe droughts. The melting of glaciers coinciding with a predicted intensified monsoon enhances the risk of flash floods during the rainy season.
The monsoon system would become even more unpredictable in addition to a projected decrease in the number of rainfall days over most parts of the country. With over 60 per cent of the countries crop area under rain-fed agriculture, the expected adverse impact on productivity is colossal. The projected increase in crop yields in certain parts of the country with rising temperatures will offset gains as negative impact on productivity is projected due to reduced duration of crop cycles. The increase in pest infestations accompanying temperature rise is another significant threat.
There is a projected alteration in forest types with a shift towards wetter forest types in the northeast and drier forest types in the north-western parts of the country. Such changes could entail species extinction and loss and change in biodiversity. Further, change in forest vegetation and biodiversity has grave implications for the nearly 200 million people dependent on forests for their livelihoods.
The country’s coastal regions face greater vulnerability to sea level rise as well as projected intensified cyclones. It has been estimated that a one-meter sea level rise would displace approximately7.1 million people in India and about 5, 764 square kilometers of land area will be lost, along with 4,200 km of roads. The country could witness inland migrations of environmental refugees from the coasts as well as from neighbouring low-lying countries like Bangladesh. In addition, there are threats to the country’s marine and coastal systems which are home to diverse life forms.
Stress on food supply, water availability, sea level rise and alterations in ecosystems would increase waterborne diseases and nutritional deficiency. The country faces the threat of an increase in the range of vector borne diseases due to more favourable breeding conditions accompanying temperature rise. In particular, greater mortality from malaria is predicted as it will not only persist in many states but also spread to new areas (10 per cent more areas in the country are projected to become malaria-prone).
Increasing temperature and water stress would further worsen land degradation leading to desertification, as land areas in many parts of the country already face some form of degradation. Since climate sensitive sectors and natural resources in the country are already facing varying degrees of pressures from socio-economic factors, the above projected impacts of climate change on the country would exacerbate these current stresses.
For a developing country like India who’s ecological and socio-economic systems are already under pressure. From rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic growth, responding to the additional stress from impacts of climate change presents both challenges and opportunities. By weaving climate change concerns into the fabric of its existing developmental policies, the country would not only be able to effectively address the challenges of climate change mitigation and adaptation, but will also be able to attain sustainable development. The impacts of climate change are conventionally assessed in terms of their impact on the human and natural system.
These impact would in turn, relate to sustainable development largely through their implication on the opportunities for economic development and development planning , on access to resources and on the distributional effects, especially on the most poor across regions and income groups. Research conducted on the impact of climate change shows that developing countries are likely to bear the brunt as they have fewer resources for coping with the adverse change.
In India, climate change could add additional stress on ecological and socio-economic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. As the economy is closely tied to its natural resource base, India with its huge and growing population is considerably vulnerable to the impact of climate change.
 | Previous Post |
Login
 Login through Social ID
|
Not finding what you are looking for? Search here.
