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India-China stand-off at Doklam likely to continue till Nov due to internal rift within the Chinese Communist Party
As per reports, Indian army soldiers have pitched tents at Doklam area, clearly indicating to their Chinese counterparts that they will not retreat until the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) vacates the Bhutanese territory.

China's repeated rhetorics through 'Global Times', their state-owned media, have virtually had no effect on India. Yesterday, Global Times reported that Chinese troops could enter Jammu and Kashmir through POK.

In a lot of my previous articles, I have explained why despite the rhetoric, China is not going to dare to go on a war with India. Those who compare the military assets of India and China perhaps do not understand how an actual war is fought. In this modern era, no country is capable of winning over another country by sheer military power.

Nowadays, war has an economical dimension too. China has serious border disputes with at least 18 nations. A war over border dispute will cause serious impact on China's already slowing down economy. Thus, China, despite the rhetoric, is not going to start a skirmish (forget about a war) with India in any of the border fronts including the presently volatile Doklam sector.

Now the question is, why China acquired such an aggressive mode and when this stand-off will finally end?

According to some experts, the Doklam stand-off is a result of China's internal politics. In Global Times, if you read all the India-related articles, you will find that apart from the rhetoric, there are also articles asking Chinese people to remain united against India on the Sikkim stand-off issue. This raises a serious question as to why would China, a communist country, call for the unity of Chinese people? In communist countries, never has there been a tradition of seeking endorsement from the public. And, since when had the Chinese Communist government started caring so much about public support?

However, If you dig in deeper, you shall find that there's disunity in the ruling Communist Party. Although Xi Jinping is said to be the supreme leader of China (only next to Mao in history), he is systematically being opposed by the Shanghai faction loyal to Jiang Zemin and Beijing faction loyal to Hu Jintao.

Jiang Zemin Hu Jintao Xi Jinping

Both these factions are indirectly in opposition to Xi Jinping due to the latter's strict anti-corruption policy which had resulted in suspension of many veteran communist leaders from the party with some even being jailed. The number of veterans dissenting against Xi Jinping is very large. Although Xi has silenced many other commoners, the Shanghai and Beijing factions appear to be too strong and well equipped with issues that go against Xi Jinping.

Also, at the moment, the Chinese economy is on a slowdown and is not expected to recover in the near future. Chinese Central Bank is piled up with debts and could face immense stress in the coming days. Various global ratings have exposed China's claims of being an economic superpower. There is growing distrust of investors in the Chinese economy.

Furthermore, North Korea has already caused a lot of embarrassment to the Chinese, which has also led to increased activity of the United States in South China Sea. The One Road, One Belt project failed to garner support from the world, including India's non-participation in what was being dubbed as China's most ambitious project till date.

To make matters worse, Chinese investors have all but lost interest in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Owing to these problems both Shanghai and Beijing factions are flexing their muscles, posing a threat to Jinping. All these developments are being considered as failures on Xi Jinping's part, especially by his political rivals.

Experts believe that Jinping intentionally wants the Doklam stand-off to further boil so that he could use it to his advantage in the upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (most likely to be held in early November). This boiling border dispute could help Jinping in neutralising his opponents, while citing the necessity of the Communist Party to remain united in wake of a war-like situation. Since younger leaders are good supporters of Jinping, using the border flare-up issue will give him more power for eradicating internal threats from within the Communist Party.

So apparently, the Doklam stand-off would continue till November 2017, and later, there would be a graceful retreat by China to restore peace and normalcyat the border.

Just like the Indian government we need not react to the pomposity of Global Times, as although, these rhetortics appear to be targeted at India, are in actual sense attempts for unifying the ruling Communist Party and consolidating the position of Chinese premiere Xi Jinping.

(Note: Inputs taken from various articles published in India & abroad.)

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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