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Indian economy is a vibrant and growing economy
In my essay "Economic and business environment in India: Prospects and Challenges", in International Journal of Research in Economics and Social Sciences (IJRESS) Vol. 8 Issue 3, March – 2018, I had marked the following likelihood as per various estimates:

·India is to be the 6th largest economy in 2018.

·World Bank says Indian economy to grow by 7.3% in 2018-19, regain top spot.

·Indian impact investments may grow 25 per cent annually to US$ 40 billion from US$ 4 billion by 2025. 

India is now the 6th largest economy in the world on GDP basis and 3rd largest on purchasing power parity. IMF forecast GDP growth for the 2018-2019 fiscal year at 7.3 per cent, rising to 7.5 percent the following year. The pickup follows a fall to 6.7 percent growth in 2017-2018.

As per IMF, all three engines of economic growth—consumption, investment and exports—will start firing from the current year. IMF predicts that growth in merchandise exports will be a strong 13.2% this fiscal year. Perhaps the

depreciation of the rupee would be a catalyst. The CII-ASCON Industry Survey also predicts improved growth due to recovery in domestic demand and the investment cycle. 

Axis Bank says India may have grown at over 8% in the 1st qr. 

According to McKinsey, the Indian impact investment is growing at 15% annually. It would accelerate as 240 infrastructure projects costing over Rs. 11.5 lakh crore stuck for years have now been speeded up. Make in India 2 is also being launched with renewed focus on 10 champion sectors to generate jobs and push growth

India expects to trim the fiscal deficit to 3.3 percent of GDP this fiscal year, after meeting an upwardly revised target of 3.5 percent of GDP in 2017/18. Retail inflation has eased to 4.2% in July and wholesale inflation, to 5.1%. As regards NPA, as much as Rs 3 lakh crore worth of loans of 70-80 companies is likely to come in for resolution under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) starting early next week.

Formal employment, as measured by the number of subscribers in the Employees' Provident Fund (EPFO), Employees' State Insurance Scheme (ESIC), and the National Pension Scheme (NPS), witnessed double-digit growth in May 2018, according to official payroll data released by the Ministry of Statistics. It appears on this basis that more than 70 lacs jobs have been created in the formal sector alone in the last year. Assuming that informal sector constitutes around 80% of all jobs many more jobs would have been created in the informal sector in the same period. Then there are job multiplier working in areas like infrastructure, construction, mobile manufacturing, tourism, village level entrepreneurship, Mudra scheme and start-ups.

In labour reforms, the process for simplifying and streamlining over 40 laws into 4 codes is on. The mandatory 56 registers/forms have been replaced by just 5 registers/forms. Fixed term employment, a major reform, has been introduced. This allows all types of firms in India to hire workers for a specific time period in all industries, depending on their requirements.

A new breed of Indian start-ups is increasingly stepping out of the safe haven of Indian shores to test uncharted waters. From cab-hailing companies and craft beer start-ups to homegrown quick service restaurant (QSR) chains, global markets are the new destinations for founders of these desi brands.

Domestically, the following improvements are noteworthy.:

1.     Road construction is faster and better than before.

2.     Electricity connections have increased, electrification of villages is complete and people are getting more hours of power supply than ever before.

3.     Reduction of upper level corruption.

4.     Swachh Bharat is a success; More toilets built than ever before and cleanliness is embedded in people's mind.

5.     Connectivity in North - East has increased.

6.     Law and order are better

7.     The Ujjwala Yojana is a great initiative and great success. 

In this connection government has approved the launch of Ayushman Bharat National Health Protection Mission (AB-NHPM). This Centrally sponsored scheme provides the benefit cover of Rs. 5 lakh per family per year. It will be a cashless, paperless transaction for beneficiaries. The target beneficiaries of the proposed scheme will be more than 10 crore families belonging to poor and vulnerable population based on Socio Economic Caste Census.

Ayushman Bharat, of which the health insurance scheme is the second part, has in its first part: a Rs 1,200-crore programme for setting up 1.5 lakh health and wellness centres across the country; for this, CSR initiatives of corporates are also being considered.

The government is implementing the Swaminathan Commission report for improving living standards of farmers and upliftment of farm sector. In order to implement policy reforms and new schemes in agriculture, the government has taken several measures and a budgetary provision of .`2,11,694 crore has been made. The government has also introduced the Model Agricultural Land Leasing Act, 2016 to all states which is a very important step in agricultural reforms. Keeping in view the recommendations of the National Commission on Farmers to increase productivity and eliminate malnutrition, 795 improved varieties of crops have been developed in the last four years by ICAR out of which 495 varieties are tolerant to climate change. These have been handed over to farmers so that they can take advantage of the advanced varieties.

From all these above, it appears that meaningful initiatives continue to be taken by the government for betterment of the economy injecting vigour into Indian economic growth. India is now a vibrant and growing economy, no doubt.

There is however a bad omen in that there has recently been a short run on Rupee. It may cause a double whammy effect. Import cost may go up particularly when demand for crude import is inflexible and foreign exchange inflow may turn into foreign exchange outflow. RBI and Govt. have to tread very cautiously in this respect.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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