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Indo-Pak war like situation: Why China will not dare to wage a war against India in support of Pakistan?
Amid tensions between India and Pakistan post the Uri attack, a majority of Indians are demanding punitive action against Pakistan. The Indian government has too expressed its intent to retaliate against Pakistan militarily, although at a small scale.

Expecting Indian action, Pakistan has too started preparations for a possible war to thwart away any aggression from India. Yesterday, on September, 22, 2016 F-16 jets were seen flying over Islamabad at around 10.20 pm (PST), as Pakistan's war preparation exercise and for sending a confidence building message to Pakistani people that the army was ready to take care of a possible Indian attack. Some experts predict that even if India attacks Pakistan at a small scale, Pakistan will ensure that it escalates into a full blown war that may result into a nuclear holocaust.

I have written many articles on this platform explaining as to why there will never be a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The Pakistani military is not so foolish that it will trigger a nuclear war only to see Pakistan being wiped out of the world map. Further, India's cold war doctrine is also highly feared by Pakistani war experts. Hence, I feel that even Pakistan will not escalate it into a full blown war at all.

However, some other experts have argued that China will join Pakistan in case there is an Indo-Pak war. These experts have also raised doubts on whether India can fight at two fronts with two enemies simultaneously? Former Indian army chief has rightly said that China will not declare a war in support of Pakistan, however, still if China does attack India during an eventual Indo-Pak war, India is prepared to tackle them both.

Many articles written by me and others on this platform explain in detail why China will not engage in war with India in support of Pakistan from international, economic and diplomatic point of view. Now, I also explain below how China is also no match to India, militarily.

Many people might start mocking at me for my above statement, remembering India's defeat to China in the 1962 war. Moreover, India trails way behind China in military strength where numbers are concerned in each category (such as number of soldiers, fighter planes, tanks, submarines, warships etc). But be patient, I am presenting logic supported with facts.

First, let's see why India lost the 1962 war. Nehru had shown aggression in deploying Indian soldiers at advanced borders in disputed areas to test China's patience. This was a period when there was an uprising going on in Tibet and India had lent support to Tibet against China. Also, the Dalai Lama was given asylum by India, which further irked China.

The Chinese in fact, didn't react to all these Indian moves, initially. However, on October 20, 1962, China started its offensive against Indian with provocative army deployment. The Indian Army had to retreat because Nehru had deployed them in advance areas but didn't arrange a backup support system. Thus, without getting support, the Indian soldiers suffered a lot of causalities and China advanced almost unopposed, capturing vast areas of India, both in the Northeast and Ladakh regions. On October 24, 1962, China declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrew from the occupied areas during the three day offensive.

During the Chinese offensive, the two dominant super powers, USA and USSR were engaged with each other during the Cuban Missile Crisis, hence both weren't available to intervene in this Sino-Indian war. On October 28, 1962 the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved and the Chinese offensive against India also ended. Many argue that China had attacked India taking advantage of the Cuban Missile Crisis but then had to withdraw as intervention from the superpowers was imminent. But I beg to differ here. Chinese soldiers had managed to surge inside India when unopposed, but stopped the moment they realised that further advancement could mean engaging with well placed Indian soldiers with proper backup. Chinese army had to withdraw also because they knew that organised Indian soldiers would finally push them back.

To prove my analysis, let me give the example of the 1967 Indo-China war. Many perhaps never refer to this war because their theory of Chinese superiority over the Indian army might get punctured. On October 1, 1967, the Chinese army infiltrated into the 'Kingdom of Sikkim', a free monarchical state which was India's protectorate as per the 1950 Indo-Sikkimese Treaty. The Indian army retaliated and by October 10, 1967 cleared the infiltrated area by pushing back the Chinese army beyond the borders of Sikkim (Nathu la and Chol la). By the end of this war, while 88 Indian soldiers were killed and another 163 wounded, China lost 340 soldiers and 450 of their soldiers got wounded. That speaks of the superiority of Indian soldiers over Chinese soldiers. India not only rescued the Kingdom of Sikkim from Chinese aggression but also merged Sikkim as a state into the Indian Union in 1975 despite China's strong objection. China couldn't dare to fight against India in the Sikkim sector. China didn't recognise Sikkim as an Indian state until 2003. In 2003, China recognised Sikkim as an integral part of Indian territory in return of India's agreement that Tibet was an integral part of China.

Then, in 1986, India accorded full statehood to Arunachal Pradesh to which China objected. According to China, Arunachal Pradesh belongs to it (as part of greater Tibet). Thus, in 1987 both India and China again stood face to face in a near possible war. But, somehow after some heated exchange of claims and counter claims the Chinese army withdrew their massive deployment, however, registering their objections in diplomatic circles which continue till now. Since then, there have been a number of confrontations between India and China on boundary disputes but never resulted in to a bloody conflict.

How is Indian military superior to Chinese militarily?

There are two reasons. Firstly, although China and India share a very long boundary, nearly 80 per cent of the border between both countries is inhabitable and unfit for human survival. Thus, the corridor of confrontation between India and China is very small (only restricted to the Northeast and Ladakh). Thus, Chinese military's size becomes irrelevant due to this narrow corridor.

Secondly, the available narrow corridor too is a challenging terrain where sustaining life is extremely difficult, forget about fighting wars. This becomes advantageous to the Indian army because due to experience, Indian army is always battle ready even in these hostile climatic conditions. Although, the Chinese army may be very large, it lacks actual war experience (present China hasn't engaged in war against any country except for the three days of 1962 war against retreating Indian soldiers). In such hostile terrains, wars are decided on the basis of battle readiness of the army rather than size. Hence, China is no match to India, courtesy the difficult border topography and the battle readiness of the Indian army.

That proves why China will not dare to attack India under any circumstances particularly when deployment of Indian soldiers is now very robust at the borders.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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