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Is Donald Trump planning for a war against Iran?
Of late, most of American presidents want a war for the reasons best known to them. In Trump, one should be sure that he wanted at least a war in his tenure whoever may be the opponent.

Many had thought that Trump would opt for military intervention in North Korea. Problem was that South Korea, Japan and Taiwan would have been the ultimate sufferers because North Korea would have inflicted maximum damage on these countries if not America's main land.

Also America has sizable military presence in Japan and South Korea who are simply sitting ducks on the radars of the North Korean dictator. Then there might be possibility of Chinese indirect help to North Korea. Also America has bitter results in this part of World in the past. It may declare they won the war against Vietnam. But fact was that Americans had to retreat from Vietnam. Then in Korea war too, they couldn't retrieve entire Korea and had to end war on the broader between North Korea and South Korea. Its active Chinese support which forced American led Korean War to a compromise. Thus Trump realised that North Korea is a difficult customer to handle in a war because of the geo-political reason.

However, America can claim much success in Middle East. It successfully over threw Saddam Husain, taken power from Taliban in Afghanistan and also it has some accolades against ISIS in Syria although Russia-Iran-Syria claim comprehensive win against ISIS. America too have highest military presence in the Gulf area. On the other hand Iran doesn't have a friend in the Middle East. Saudi Arab wants Iran to be mowed down. Israel also consider Iran is main enemy and it's being said that Israel and Saudi Arab had internal understanding against Iran.

Another main reason which America always considers as an advantage is public anger against the government. Iranian public are angry against the Iranian government and have been conducting open street protests.

Having said the above, is there any indicator if really Trump mulls for a military conflict with Iran? Well there some indicators which I am explaining below.

First, without any convincing reason Trump withdrew from the 'Iran nuclear deal frame work' of 2015. The agreement was done between Iran and P5+1. P5 stands for five permanent members of UN Security Council those are America, Russia, Chin, UK and France. The additional country is Germany.

Trump is imposing tough sanctions against Iran which always precede when America goes to war against any country. Rest of World are critical of these sanctions but then none has any courage to deviate from those sanctions. India and China among eight countries who got temporary waiver but then most of the country are looking for alternate source to import petroleum oil.

America suddenly increased its naval activities in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. Point to be noted that America had reduced its naval presence significantly in Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean post Iraq and Afghanistan and Iraq wars. This is being viewed as preparation for military conflict against a nation like Iran.

America has increased activities significantly in Qatar and Diego Garcia. Normally America has a large presence of its air power in both the bases but recently it has reinforced its strength and war practices are being done regularly. American style of war history says that its initial attack is always from air and seas. Thus the preparedness of its air force and naval force speaks volumes of its intention.

America has reinforced significantly its army base in the Middle East. America has bases in large region of Middle East and especially it has important bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. America is not known for engaging land forces first, but the reinforcement of these forces is viewed in two ways. First because these bases are in the reach of Iran thus Iran could attack these bases followed by America's air and naval attacks. Second, whatever damage you do through air and naval attacks, it's the land force that really cease a country. Thus these reinforcement would mean for both reasons, first to prevent any surprise attack by Iran and then to venture Iran at the final stage of the war.

The above also can be deduced because America is also evacuating its civilian and military dependants from Bahrain. Iran's counter attack may start from Bahrain which is vociferously vocal against Iran. It is also considered that America will evacuate all such civilians from other bases sequentially. When America evacuates its civilians that's a significant indicator as to what America is planning.

Last but not least the significant indicator that Iran is complaining America's increased reconnaissance over flight on Iranian air space. It's well known that before attacking a country America always do reconnaissance surveys to pin point the targets.

Thus above indicates what Trump has for Iran and most probably it would launch its attack in 2019, a year before Presidential election 2020 unless there's any compelling reasons for not to launch the attacks.

What would be the result of USA-Iran war? We will discuss in next series of articles.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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