PAKISTAN IS pivotal to the final settlement of the Taliban generated violence in Afghanistan, so says the Department of State of the United States of America. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Secretary of State tacitly endorses this assessment. No wonder she paid a visit to Islamabad on 19^th July before moving on to Kabul to attend the International Peace Initiative to gradually end the 9-year war. The American nation does not have its heart in winning the war on terror against the Taliban backed by Al Qaida. As many as 60 nations are expected to make their presence felt in Kabul. India will be represented by its Foreign Minister, SM Krishna who is expected to meet Hillary Clinton on the sidelines so that India is not sidelined.

WHY FOCUS ON PAKISTAN

Hillary Clinton in her latest visit to Pakistan on July 19 not only committed her country to granting an American aid to the tune of eight and a half billion dollars, all inclusive. The Obama Administration, rightly or wrongly, feels that unless Pakistan is economically strong it cannot be with America in fighting against the Taliban terrorists. Moreover, now that it is Curtains for the US military involvement in Afghanistan, America understands that Pakistan is the only country in the region that can contain a complete takeover of the Afghan government by Islamic extremists. As of now the anti-American feelings in Pakistan are running high and a massive economic aid by America to Pakistan may contain it, if not turn the tide.

Many international specialists watching the South Asian scene must be laughing in their sleeves. “VINASH KALE VIPREET BUDDHI”, that is a saying in Sanskrit and it means that when disaster is about to overtake a country or its policies, the wisdom of the policy makers is ravished. America is in the same situation at present. A student of military history of Afghanistan knows very well that when the Soviet forces had withdrawn from Afghanistan, the local government was in complete disarray. The Taliban, with the active and tacit support of Pakistan, killed, maimed or put in prison all well-intentioned and progressive Afghans. The Taliban had created complete mayhem in Afghanistan until the American intervention after 9/11 about nine years ago. History is likely to repeat itself.

Americans have little choice in the matter. The Afghan war is so unpopular on the Continental United States that no political leader worth his salt would sail against the current. The Vietnam War was more unpopular and Americans ran helter-skelter in Saigon at the last moment of military withdrawal. The US military strategists do not wish to see that ignominy again. Pakistan military will provide a buffer between the Islamist insurgents and the withdrawing US forces and forces of other countries with NATO at the present moment. The US dollars being given by America to Pakistan is a kind of payment of premium of life insurance for that chaotic situation.

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan is keen on saving his skin. He and his family do not want to be slaughtered like the family and its head of the communist party of Afghanistan who had ruled the roost under the Soviet patronage. All collaborators with the NATO certainly run the risk of being publicly hanged by the nearest tree along the road. It has happened many times before and might happen again. The pro-American elements in the Afghan civil society are jittery and have no choice but to look for protectors whosoever they may be.

IS INDIA IN HIDING

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan would have preferred India to Pakistan as a saviour. Unfortunately India has shown no inclination to increase its clout among Afghans by intervening in the post-American chaos militarily. India feels that its knees are too weak to take on extra load of defending another civil society when it could not go to the rescue of Kashmiri Hindus when the terrorists did the ethnic cleansing in 1990s. The Indian leadership does not have the WILL to stand up and be counted as the Defender of Democracy. The military experts feel that if America failed in Afghanistan, what chances will India have to succeed? Mirza Raja Jai Singh, an ace General of the Mughals in the rule of Shah Jehan had failed to reconquer Kandahar after the Persians had wrested it a second time. Raja Birbal, a non-operational commander of the Mughal Army of Akbar was killed in suppressing a revolt of ferocious tribes of Afghanistan. The terrain favours guerrilla warfare which large traditional armies are incapable of containing, what to say of exterminating.

Indeed India is a donor country to the economic development of people of Afghanistan. India will be present in Kabul on 20^th July 2010 and thereafter when 60 or so donors to development assemble to refine the final strategy for economic development and political settlement of the Afghan nation. The United States of America, the European countries and other nations that have shelled out money or posted troops there will meet and discuss the new politico-economic strategy with a dash of military inputs.

THE OUTCOME

The present overall commander of the NATO forces deployed in Afghanistan, General David Petraues is a supporter of the Obama Administration. The previous General who was fired for his outspoken comments called a spade a spade. He had said that whenever he discussed the war in Afghanistan, he found that President Obama was not focussed. Possibly, he does not have his heart in it.