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Is the Indian's economy heading back to 1970's storm?
Indian's economy is the 10 largest in the world. In 1970-71, India had 4.7 GDP rate (lakh crores), in 1990-91 it had 10.8 GDP rate and in 2010-11 it was 48.8 GDP rate. The value of rupee in 1991 was 100 paisa and 2011, it was 29 paisa during the downfall against the dollar.

INDIAN GOVERNMENT had allowed the situation to develop; the GDP growth of 2010-11 was not satisfying for the corporate world. The GDP growth in June- Sep 2010 was 8.9 % and it decreased to 6.9% in June- Sep 2011.  The rise in industrial production was far better in June as compared to November.

Rise and fall in Industrial production

 

 June

9.5%

July

3.7%

August

3.4%

September

2.0%

October

-4.7%

November

5.9%

 

Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh is very well known as guardian angel economist, he played a major role for the UPA-1 during elections. Mr Singh brought the idea of new economic policy in 1991 to maintain the economy and expand the financial expenditure in the country by liberalization, privatization, globalization and some new policies. Now opposition is directly attacking Dr Manmohan Singh who managed to bring the country out of the financial storm in 1991.

 

On 6 September, 1963, Dr Ram Manohar Lohia delivered a speech in the Parliament. The debate came to be known as ‘three annas versus fifteen annas’. “I believe that the daily earnings of twenty seven crore Indians are three annas according to me, the honourable Prime Minister says 15 annas, whereas the Planning Minister says it is seven and a half aanas. Now it is between the honourable Prime Minister and the Planning Minister to decide who is right,” said Dr Ram Manohar Lohia.  

 

In 2011, planning commission brought down the graph of poverty line in India by a unique measure. According to it, “32 rupees are enough for the livelihood of a person in a day”. Later government dismissed the graph scenario, after it had to face criticism from various social organisations.

 

Per capital income at constant prices in 1970-71 was Rs 8,091, in 1990-91 it was Rs 11,535 and in 2010-11, it was about Rs 41,129. With higher per capita income, poverty rate has dipped from 65% to 35%.

On 18 December 1991, the then finance minister, Manmohan Singh delivered a speech under rule 193 which allows a discussion on a matter of urgent public importance without a vote. He said, “I can say in all truthfulness, you would have seen in this country, a total breakdown of the economic system. It was a crisis of the total economic system of our country, the treasury was nearly bankrupt, a country which was not able to import even the most essential things of life, a country from which the non-resident Indians were taking money out, at the rate of nearly 350 million dollars a week and a country which had reserves that were not equal to two weeks’ imports.”

 

The retails or exports sector was $2.1 billion in 1970-71, it slightly increased $ 18 billion in 1990-91 and was $245 billion in 2010-11.  In 1990, FDI started to pour into Indian markets, the first proof of global interest in India was $0.13 billion and in 2010-11 it covered $30.3 billion of Indian market.

 

Twenty years ago, Dr Manmohan Singh, very well explained the importance of implementing economic reforms in a historic budget speech in the Parliament. But in recent months, India’s financial representation is again looking dismal like 1991. Today, India’s Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh’s government is totally on back foot with the allegations of corruption and inflation. Eventually country’s economy is on the path of 8% growth in gross domestic product.

 

Last year, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee met with corporate world to discuss about how to reach at 9 % GDP in March 2011. But growth rate has slowed sharply past year, down from the government’s imaginative target of 9% to around 6.5% for the year ending March 31, 2012.

 

"We cannot allow our fiscal deficit to cross beyond a certain limit. We need to manage our receipts and payments so that our fiscal deficits, superior borrowings and debts are within controllable limits," said Union Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee on Saturday in Kolkata.   

 

Fiscal Deficit is a difference between the government’s policies in the current year’s total revenue and its expenditure. The fiscal deficit compared to March 2012 is expected to come at 5.5% or 6% of GDP, much higher than the government’s targeted 4.6%. Foreign traders are ready to invest their money through Foreign Direct Investment bill. However UPA government has failed to pass FDI bill.

 

To improve India’s economical situation and draw a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Mr. Singh had instructed the central bank to devalue the rupee. This was done earlier also in two steps – it was 9.5% against the U.S. dollar on July 1, 1991, and second by another 11% last week.

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