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JDU-RJD alliance in Bihar assembly election 2015- What forced Lalu Yadav to consume political poison
This is a sequel of my article 'JDU-RJD Alliance in Bihar Assembly Elections 2015- A Right Choice for Nitish Kumar or he is committing a blunder' published on this platform on 11th August 2015. In this article I will discuss why Lalu Yadav is forced to consume political poison in agreeing on Nitish Kumar as the CM candidate for upcoming Bihar assembly elections.

Opponents always look to division rival alliances. In present day politics, dog eats dog. Thus when the BJP and JDU break up occurred; the happiest person was Lalu Yadav. Lalu Yadav is one of tallest politician in Bihar polity. Despite his bad governance and being out of power for a decade, his vote share never dipped below 20%. Twenty percent vote share is always a sizable vote share that can dictate the state polity, if a right coalition is available. Thus Lalu initially supported Nitish Kumar to establish himself as the big brother. The complete idea was that his Party will be the real competitor to the BJP and parties like JDU, Congress, NCP etc will remain under RJD's umbrella. He was more hopeful when he found his party having 2nd highest vote share behind BJP in 2014 LS elections.

But Rahul Gandhi played the game. He made sure that Congress remained the prime coalition partner with JDU and Nitish Kumar the CM candidate. It's was up to RJD to accept or reject to be the alliance partner of JDU and Congress. Lalu Yadav personally met with Sonia Gandhi, but Rahul prevailed upon Sonia. The answer was similar to RJD's offer in previous elections, where Congress was given a very small number of seats with an offer that either you be in the alliance or contest yourself.

Now it was up to Lalu Yadav to decide what would be his options. Lalu is a very intelligent politician. His calculations definitely made him realize that the Congress and JDU coalition may out shine RJD. As Nitish Kumar is popular politician in Bihar, he could get back the lost vote share from BJP. It's to be noted that during LS elections, many clearly said that they wanted Narendra Modi as the PM and Nitish Kumar as the CM. The minority vote bank might slip from RJD and rally behind JDU and Congress alliance. Thus, no matter who won Bihar assembly elections; RJD had a risk of complete wipe out. Delhi assembly election result was an eye opener!

If the BJP won then Congress and JDU would be in the opposition. If JDU led UPA won, then BJP would be in the opposition. That means in either case, RJD would have had to lose its political space and head for oblivion. Even in case there is a hung assembly, RJD can join in a post poll alliance, but with a very weak influence on the alliance government.

That's why Lalu Yadav is ready for a pre-poll alliance with JDU and Congress, accepting Nitish Kumar as the Chief Ministerial candidate. His assumption is that by staying in a pre-poll alliance, he could negotiate for more number of seats. Thus, even if Nitish Kumar becomes the CM, he would have his influence through the number of RJD elected members.

However, Lalu Yadav has a much difficult road ahead. It's clear that Rahul Gandhi will not share stage with Lalu Yadav, which would be embarrassing to him. Next, the Congress has declared that it wants 40 seats to contest, to which Nitish would be agreeing readily. Now the problem will be how many seats RJD gets to contest. Although RJD is the official alliance partner, but every attempt will be made by Nitish Kumar and Rahul Gandhi to ask RJD to contest fewer seats than JDU. Even there would be a straight talk to Lalu, either be with us or contest yourself. In any case JDU has already taken the position of an alternative to the BJP.

Thus, Lalu will again be in a dilemma on whether to accept whatever is offered to him or to go alone. In both cases, Lalu Yadav may be the sufferer and ready to consume political poison.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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