Karnataka polls: BJP may shine, hung assembly likely

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Karnataka polls: BJP may shine, hung assembly likely

An air of uncertainty hangs as Karnataka completes its final phase of polls on May 22. Though most feel that BJP has an edge over Congress, a fractured mandate is likely. Polling percentage holds the crucial key: An opinion poll by Merinews.

CJ: merinews network

Wed, May 21, 2008 22:01:53 IST

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Karnataka Elections :

WITH KARNATAKA going to the third and final phase of elections on Thursday (May 22), political parties in the state are keeping their fingers crossed. There is an air of uncertainty in the political circles with none of the parties ready to sound the victory bugle as 70 constituencies go to poll tomorrow.

While Congress is a bit uncertain about the performance in the past two phases of polling, BJP appears to be a bit more positive while approaching the third phase of the elections. It is banking upon the traditional Lingayat and backward caste vote bank in north Karnataka to take it across the election battlefield.

However, Congress is banking upon it’s own caste arithmetic to upset the BJP applecart and ensure that it is a strong contender in the polls. Congress is banking upon the 13 seats reserved for dalits and schedule tribes, who have got two seats after the delimitation process.

Merinews did a quick survey with a number of Karnataka citizens and found a surprising difference of opinion about the likely outcome of elections. However, majority of respondents agreed that no party could form a government on its own and predicted a coalition for the state.

The contest in Karnataka this time is mainly between BJP and Congress and the former is leading a little ahead in the electoral race, according to the people surveyed by merinews.

A number of respondents said that the BJP was ahead in the race as it had been able to touch the emotional chord of populace and made them believe that it had been ditched by JD (S).

BJP is also on a strong wicket as it has projected YS Yediyurappa as the chief ministerial candidate, who belongs to Lingayat community, a dominant political caste in Karnataka.

Incidentally, north Karnataka which is going to polls on Thursday is a traditional stronghold of Lingayats and this could play a major role in BJP’s strong performance in the polls.

Talking to merinews, Pawan Tandle, a Bangalore based citizen, predicted a strong performance for the BJP. Projecting Yediyurappa as the BJP candidate for chief ministership is the main trump card of the party and it will enable it to come to power. He, however, maintained that BJP will have to get the support of an ally to form a strong and stable government.

A majority of people surveyed were of the opinion that the fate of elections would be decided by the polling in north Karnataka. Whosoever is able to crack the electoral mathematics in this part of the state will warm the seat of power in Bangalore, said the respondents.

Speaking to merinews, Thangal said that Congress was faltering in the elections because it had no real leader in Karnataka. The party is concentrating in major urban pockets but it has not been able to convince the voters and it also has failed on the development front, he said.

An important factor, which could adversely affect the Congress is the booming inflation, which has really hit the middle classes and poor people hard. Rising prices of food and petrol will prove the undoing of the Congress as it being seen as the culprit behind this menace.

Sudesh G Shetty was of the opinion that BJP and JD(S) will lead the polls, but their inability to come together could help the Congress. But, he maintained that the BJP had a better standing this time and could win a major share of seats.

An interesting analysis was put forth by Srinagesh, who said that the outcome of the polls would be decided by the polling percentage. “If the state witnesses 50 to 60 per cent polling then it is very likely that Congress would be benefited and win major share of seats,” he explained.

He, however, added that if polling increases to somewhere between 60 to 70 per cent than the BJP and other parties will lead the polls. “Historically, it is witnessed that if more people are mobilised to vote than Congress suffers and opposition parties are able to claim the fort,” he added.

In north Karnataka, he opined that there would be polarization of votes on the basis of caste and it is likely that Lingayats, backwards and schedule caste voters give a split verdict to both parties. He gave a forty-forty seat share to both sides, whereas majority of other respondents opined that BJP was on a very strong wicket in north Karnataka.

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