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Kerala assembly polls 2016: It's BJP which helped in LDF's landslide victory!
LDF's return to power in Kerala is seen by many as a routine matter as both LDF and UDF rules God's own country alternatively since decades. BJP opening its account in the State is seen as a success of the party. Congress sympathisers are asking BJP, "where is their success. Except Assam BJP is not visible in any other state."

Is it really a fact? I and many other have analysed how BJP fared in West Bengal despite the presence of regional satrap like TMC and the alliance between Congress and Left.

In Kerala LDF got a vote share of 43.42 per cent and won 91 seats. Perhaps many didn't note that LDF's vote share during 2011 was 44.99 per cent that is 1.57 per cent more. However, they had still lost the election as UDF's vote share was 45.42 per cent, just 2.5 per cent more.

The victory of LDF with such a huge mandate became possible because of BJP led NDA's success, which got around 14.65 per cent votes, an increase of 8.58 per cent from its 2011 vote share of 6.07 per cent. That means had there been no NDA, UDF might have defeated anti-incumbency retaining the power. UDF got 38.82 per cent votes, a decline of 6.6 per cent from its 2011 vote share of 45.42 per cent.

From the above fact it's clear that NDA increased its vote share taking 1.57 per cent from LDF, 6.6 per cent from UDF and 0.4 per cent from others. In Kerala LDF is a Hindu supported party where as UDF is a minority supported party. Had NDA taken away Hindu votes from LDF or had failed to increase its vote share at all or even performed very badly, then LDF had no chance to form the new government post! That's why some experts opined that the Left front should be thankful to BJP and NDA for their spectacular win in Kerala.

Post elections there were incidents of violence taking place between BJP and the Left supporters. But why this violence? I have a reason.

BJP had a record that it always double its assembly polls' vote share during Lok Sabha elections. This means that during 2019 general elections BJP-led NDA might get around 30 per cent vote share. Now imagine whose votes BJP is going to take away?

As I had earlier said that minorities will stay with UDF. Thus LDF might lose its Hindu votes. If BJP really dents LDF's Hindu base to get its 30 per cent vote share, it may happen that UDF will be a ultimate gainer, but, at the same time LDF will be swept out of Kerala particularly in Lok Sabha polls.

Left has realised this and that's why there are incidents of violence taking place between the supporters of Left and BJP. Congress too has realised this and it earnestly wants BJP to take away Left votes so that they could get benefit out of it.

Conclusion is, in Kerala BJP's position is similar to the position it had 25 years back in Karnataka.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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