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Kumar Vishwas is showing over confidence; however, any thing can happen in politics: Political Experts
Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) candidate Kumar Vishwas, while confirming his candidature from UP's Amethi parliamentary constituency has now challenged BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi to contest elections from the same seat.

Earlier he has challenged the Congress scion and Vice- President Rahul Gandhi, who is the seating MP from Amethi. Today Vishwas formally applied for the party ticket from Amethi.

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Congress while replying to Kumar Vishwas has said that anyone can fight elections from anywhere.  The party, according to the media reports,  also added that whoever will fight elections against Rahul Gandhi from Amethi will loose the elections.  

After stunning debut in Delhi, no doubt, Aam Aadmi Party is in full confidence. It has already expressed its willingness to fight the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. However, showing confidence is one thing, but they way Kumar Vishwas is challenging PMs in waiting of the two veteran parties i.e. BJP and Congress, is it an over-confidence?

Professor of Political Science at Delhi University Dr. Pradip Kr. Datta feels that its a clear over-confidence shown by AAP and its member Kumar Vishwas.

He said,“ It clearly shows the over confidence of AAP. These kind of things are done by AAP just for publicity, anyhow this is not possible, Modi won't be contesting from Amethi, its just a symbolic thing to grab the media's attention.”

Sr. Journalist and political analyst Avdhesh Kumar said that Kumar Vishwas is behaving like a new born baby. Avdhesh added that Vishwas did not think before speaking to the media.

“AAP does such kind of things only for advertisement and media coverage and this is also one of its kind. I don't think their is any element of civilized politics in challenging Modi and Rahul Gandhi to contest Lok Sabha elections from Amethi,” said Avdhesh Kumar.

On the question whether AAP candidate Kumar Vishwas stands any chances against Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, the political experts said that, 'in politics any thing can happen'.

“As their is a wide range of dissatisfaction against Congress and its government at the center their are chances of AAP to win at Amethi constituency,” said Avdhesh Kumar.

However, Prof. Datta feels that “as of now, Rahul Gandhi has wider chances of winning.”

AAP leader Kumar Vishwas had also said that if Modi was not willing to take up the challenge then BJP's president Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari could accept his challenge.

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hemen parekh
A Black Swan ?Will the 2014 national elections throw up a " Black Swan " event ?Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan " ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :> It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations , because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility> It carries an " EXTREME IMPACT "> In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it explainable and PREDICTABLE In brief ,> Rarity> Extreme Impact> Retrospective PredictabilityAccording to Taleb ,> The highly expected " not happening ", is also a Black SwanExample of Black Swan ? > Kumar Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul Gandhi in 2014 - and defeating him !Here is why :> Amethi Lok Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for past many decades . To save face , no other political party fields any heavy-weight candidate from Amethi ( RARITY )> A Kumar Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds of Aam Aadmi Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in their respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose their deposits ! ( EXTREME IMPACT )> What makes Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE ? Simple * People don't want " more of the same " for another 5 years . ( viz : Dynasty Rule ) * People want a change * People believe , AAP will eliminate corruption * People think AAP will work for the benefit of the poor * People have seen what AAP government delivered within 48 hours of assuming power in Delhi * BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this blog nor read " Black Swan " !No doubt , experts debating election results on TV channels , in June 2014 ( after the fact ) , will concoct many other " Explanations " to justify the occurrence of this Black Swan ! * hemen parekh ( 03 Jan 2014 / Mumbai )
hemen parekh
Overwhelming Demands ?You bet !Looking at the crowds shouting their demands outside Arvind Kejriwal's residence , you would think , people of Delhi have unlimited arrears of problemsIndividuals and groups are trooping in from far and wide , demanding :> Better physical services ( Power / Water / Homes / Transport )> Jobs ( Permanency / Removal of Contract System / New jobs )> Reservations / Abolitions / Implementations / Resignations> Admissions / Legalizations / Transfers / Rise in Auto fares > Roll back of CNG Prices / Reduction of Vegetable prices> Security / Loans / Pensions The list goes on and onOnly problemWhereas demands are " Unlimited " , resources ( Manpower Money Systems ) are " Limited " !Hence Arvind will need to evolve a simple method to evaluate the " IMPORTANCE " and the " URGENCY " of these demandsHe may want to devise an online form or , like last time , print and distribute 50 lakh forms , which only need to be ticked , as in a multiple choice questionnaire Then , on a scale of 1- 5 , invite people of Delhi to score each demand on the following criteria :How does this problem affect ?> Economic Status ( Rich / Middle Class / Poor )> Geographic Coverage ( Posh Area / Middle class locality / Slums )> Gender ( Male / Female / Both )> Age ( Old people / Middle Age / Children )> Coverage ( Entire population / Majority / One Community only )> Nature ( Political / Social / Economic )> Character ( Establish Equity / Reduce Disparity / Speed up Justice )> Scope ( Job Creation / Health / Education / Corruption Removal )> Time Frame ( Crisis Situation / Urgent / Can wait )Then display the demands in the descending order of " PERCENTILE SCORES " - so people get to know what will get attended to and whenFor AAP , with its inclination for seeking people's opinion through " STRUCTURED STATISTICAL SURVEYS " , devising such a transparent and easily understood " PROCESS " , cannot be a big dealIncidentally , no individual problem / demand should be included in the surveyCarrying out such a pilot , " SOCIO - ECONOMIC - POLITICAL " experiment can take our democracy to the grass-root level and give the people a sense of participation in solving their own problemsAt the same time , people will be made aware that ,> Resources are limited> All demands cannot be attended simultaneously> Injustice of past 15 years cannot be undone in the next 15 days* hemen parekh ( 31 Dec 2013 / Mumbai )

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