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Mandate 2019: Incompatible vote banks don't add up if an alliance is made Part I – Uttar Pradesh
The mandate of 2019 has exposed many myths which political parties and even psephologists used to believe in blindly. One such myth is that an alliance of any two or more parties automatically adds up votes arithmetically.

The simple hypothesis is that if 'two or more parties having contradicting voter base or ideologies form an alliance, it does not result into automatic arithmetical adding up of votes.  Let's take tow test cases of UP and Karnataka in the recently concluded general election 2019. In this article I will analyse UP first.

In November 2019, the SP and the BSP declared formation of the mahagathbandhan, with the RLD joining it later. I was quick to point out the possible failure of the alliance through the article, 'SP-BSP gathabandhan in UP is no guarantee that their vote banks will add up' on 13 November 2018 in this platform. Subsequently I wrote a lot of articles on why it will not be successful. A seat by seat analysis on this point was also published on this platform on 5 February, 2019 through my article 'General election 2019: A seat by seat analysis on why SP-BSP-RLD mahagathbandhan will not add up their vote banks'.

The simple reason I have mentioned in many of my analysis is that two contradictory or incompatible vote banks never transfer votes to each other. The earlier proven cases were the SP-Congress alliance in UP assembly, Congress-Left alliance in West Bengal Assembly election and the Congress-TDP alliance in Telangana Assembly election. The SP, Left and the TDP have anti-Congress ideology in their roots. That's why the vote base of the alliance didn't add up and rather most of vote bases of those individual parties went to the potential winner in the state. For example, the BJP was benefitted in UP, the TMC in West Bengal and the TRS in Telangana.

The BSP has its roots in anti-Yadav or/and sizable OBC class. The BSP took away the SC vote bank from the Congress to fight against socialistic parties like the SP or earlier with the Janata Parivar which was wielding political power due to the large OBC vote bank. Many a times the BSP had become a better alliance partner with the BJP because it was then a party having just upper caste vote bank. Even when the BSP got full majority in UP it got a majority of upper caste votes. That's why the BSP and SP alliance is always uncomplimentary. The only common vote bank was Muslim vote banks. But in UP Muslim vote bank alone can't win you an election.

In 2014 SP, BSP and RLD had a vote share of 22.2%, 19.6% and 0.85% respectively. Thus, adding all the vote share the total comes out to be 42.65 which is little more than BJP's vote share of 42.3%. Apana Dal had a vote share of 1% apart from BJP's 42.3%. That means NDA had a vote share of 43.3%. However, Akhilesh and Mayawati thought that if they get 42,65% vote share or little more because of double anti-incumbency of BJP, then they can succeed in decimating BJP in UP. But the UP-result shows that SP, BSP and RLD got a vote share of 17.96%, 19,26% and 1.67%. This adds up to 38.89% which is 3.76% less than that of 2014. There is no point in blaming Congress because it has also got less vote share than that of 2014. (7.43% in 2014 and 6.31% in 2019).

From demographic point of view, it can be assessed that the MGB got just Yadav votes (8%), Jatav SC votes (11%) and Muslim votes (18%) which adds up to 38%. Another 0.89% might be from Jats (out of total 2%). That means non-Jatav SCs left the MGB as well as non-Yadav OBCs. Where all such votes go? The hypothesis is established earlier that such un-transferable votes go to potential winner which is BJP in this case. It got an astounding 49.6% votes and if Apana Dal's vote percentage added then NDA's vote share becomes 50.6%. Not to forget that Amit Shah said many times that they are contesting for 50% vote share.

However, an alliance getting even 38.89% vote share should have bagged at least 30 seats. In 2009 general election Congress got 21 seats having 18.25% vote share, SP 20 seats with 27.25% vote share and SP 23 seats with 28% vote share. Well that time it was a quadrilateral contest where BJP too was a party and got just 10 seats with 17.5%. This time its mostly two-party contest ignoring Congress and other small parties. But still the demographic of UP is such that sometimes 18,25% votes gives you 21 seats but 17.5% votes gives you 10 seats. Congress seats were then mostly concentrated in its area of win whereas BJP's votes were spread through out the state. Similar case was with SP and BSP as BSP having around 4% more vote share than SP yet got 3 seats less than SP. SP votes were mostly concentrated in eastern UP where as BSP's vote bank was spread throughout the state.

What happened in 2019? It's now proved that MGB got support of only Yadavs, Jatav-SCs and Muslims. But UP demography isn't compatible for such adding up vote shares. In Western UP, Muslims are having significant size where as Yadavs are insignificant in number. In Eastern UP, the reverse is true that is Yadav community have a significant size where as Muslim communities are insignificant presence. Thus, the detail analysis says that this three community have significant impact in just 20 seats in UP. That's why in my article published on April 10, 2019 titled 'General Election 2019: It wouldn't be surprising if the BJP gets a majority on its own!', where I  have concluded that BJP will secure at least 60 seats here. The result also proved that BJP got 62 seats and MGB got just 15 seats (BSP-10, SP-5). You need not to be an astrologer to predict such things. Common political sense tells you what would happen if such incompatible alliances take place.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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