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Modi may return as PM, only if the BJP retains its absolute majority!
The growing rift between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and crucial allies of the BJP is causing worry for the party's top leadership on the possible political outcome ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The BJP is confident that the Congress is not in a position to form the next government, although its president Rahul Gandhi has succeeded in improving the morale of his party men, which is expected to improve the party's performance in several states during upcoming elections.

All the prevailing political equations in the country indicate that the BJP is bound to return to power, unless some magical political development is witnessed in the northern states.

However, everyone is suspicious whether the BJP will get absolute majority on its own like in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. Unless the BJP succeeds in getting absolute majority, party insiders have admitted that it would be difficult for Modi to retain his Prime Ministership, as most of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners are circumspect on whether to side with him or not. Over the last four years, Modi has failed in cultivating cordial relationships with leaders of most of the NDA alliance partners. As a result, three crucial allies - Shiva Sena, TDP and Akali Dal - have already openly expressed their discontent. While the Shiva Sena has already declared that it would contest alone in the 2019 polls, the TDP is threatening to snap its ties any time, accusing the Centre for its step-motherly treatment towards the bifurcated state of Andhra Pradesh. PM Modi tried a lot to pacify the TDP leadership, who had resorted to stalling the proceedings of the Parliament, by inviting TDP's Union Minister Sujana Choudary and assuring him to fulfill all commitments towards the state. On his directions, both Finance Minister Arun Jaitly and Railways Minister Piyush Goyal issued statements in the Rajya Sabha, assuring to meet all the concerns of TDP MPs. But in the absence of concrete assurances, idle promises failed to impress upon them.

Another old ally of the NDA, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has also been harbouring discontent with Modi's style of functioning. On the other hand, the phenomenal success of the Congress in Rajasthan defeating the ruling BJP in the by-polls has instilled confidence among party cadres.

In the meanwhile, BJP Chief Amit Shah's efforts to increase his party's influence in southern and eastern states, in almost 150 Lok Sabha seats, where the BJP was never considered as a force, also failed to yield any substantial results.

Except marginal gains in West Bengal and Odisha, a year ago if anyone had said that the Congress would do so well in Gujarat, no one would have believed it. Most people did not even expect that the Congress would give BJP a good fight in Gujarat.

The way that the BJP is sliding is a clear indication of things to come. In the prevailing political scenario, any conservative assessment may rule out the possibility of the BJP getting an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.

Unless the BJP manages to get about 240 seats it would be difficult for Modi to become PM again. The BJP may be forced to choose some other leader…like Home Minister Rajnath Singh, who is cozier with NDA partners.

There is no doubt that the BJP's allies are angry, upset and up in arms. Rahul Gandhi is fishing for new friends and new alliances. Having dumped the middle class, which Modi believes still looks up to him, he is now focusing on becoming the new messiah of the poor, as the recent budget indicates. Anyhow, uncertainty on their political future is haunting the BJP.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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