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Monsoon 2015: Government's forecast vs Private forecaster
In the fight between government and private weather prediction, the statement of Finance Minister Arun Jaitly seems to have supported the private weather forecasting company Skymet. When the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) announced that India would have a bleak monsoon, Skyment dismissed it. Now Arun Jaitley has also said that speculations over the deficient rainfall are "somewhat misplaced".

The IMD  forecast of low rainfall in the country casts a gloom on the people after they announced that monsoon would be a bleak 88 percent average. The IMD for the first time since their inception in 1988 has predicted a drought year. The reason for the low monsoon prediction is due to the El-Nino effect.

If the predictions come true, it would mean that the Indian farmers have many more hard days in front of them. Prices of food items would be affected, especially, prices of pulses and vegetables would rise. The prices of tractors and motorcycles might also rise due to rise in demand. The scarcity of rains would also effect the groundwater levels, which is crucial in many parts of the country. Arun Jaitley asked people not to worry over the inflation of the food grain situation Jaitley and said that there are  "abundance of foodgrain stocks in the country".

As was reported by timesofindia.com, D Sivananda Pai, IMD's lead monsoon forecaster, he said, ''El Nino is the major factor for the downgraded monsoon forecast. Its effects are already visible in the form of the ongoing heatwave that has claimed an unprecedented number of lives,"

All of IMD's claims has been rejected by India's only private company Skymet. They say that inspite of the El-Nino effect, India would get normal rainfall. Jatin Singh, CEO and founder of Skymet wrote in Livemint.com, '' We've had four El Nino years from 1953 to 1963 and all the four years witnessed normal or above-normal rainfall. 

Second, if this El Nino episode is a continuing one from last year, the monsoon in the second year does not fail. 2014 was a year that had an evolving El Nino and had a drought (88% of the long-period average rainfall, or LPA). The El Nino of 2015 is a continuation from last year.Climatologically, the chance of a back-to-back drought is very rare. In the last 140 years, it has been happened only four times—1904-05, 1965-66, and 1985-86, 1986-87.''

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