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Most Probably Kiran Bedi would be the next CM of Delhi: An analysis
A friend from Delhi who is a BJP supporter called me and asked had Amit Shah did a blunder? He also referred my article 'It is advantage Arvind Kejriwal, courtesy Delhi BJP rebels' published in this platform, where I mentioned that if Shah didn't take action in couple of days, I wouldn't put my money on BJP.
I simply asked him; whether you appreciate Shah's move to project Kiran Bedi. He said yes and described that it should be a master stroke by Amit Shah. I then said don't worry, this is really the master stroke by BJP president and most probably Kiran Bedi would be next Delhi Chief Minister. He appeared unconvinced although he found himself bit encouraged. The below is my analysis why I have said Kiran Bedi very well could be next chief minister.

Let us consider Delhi demography on economical condition. Delhi is a high middle class population that accounts around 50% of the voters. Ten per cent are belongs to upper class where as 40% of voters belong to lower class. Among lower class too there is a sizable dalit vote ban.

In 2013 assembly election, AAP got majority of lower class votes as well as middle class votes that earned them 28 seats where as strong anti-Congress wave helped BJP to get 32 seats. When Arvind Kejriwal resigned or say ran away from Delhi government, the middle class voters turned away from AAP immediately.

With Udit Raj's induction, BJP also got many dalit votes. Here one thing must be understood that poor dalits never think on party line rather vote by seeing who is their leader irrespective of parties. Thus during 2014 Lok Sabha elections BJP came out with flying colour wining all seven seats comfortably.

Delhi BJP unit is most inefficient and divided house due to which Sheila Dikshit won Delhi election continuously thrice for the Congress. It's UPA government's failure which actually decimated Congress in Delhi and not due to inefficiency of Sheila or efficiency of Delhi BJP unit. Thus while running up to assembly election 2015, AAP re-strategized its plan. Knowing that Congress is no more the rival, they stop talking about Jan Lokpal, making dharana etc and started talking about development. Because they know Modi will make development as a poll issue.

At the same time AAP was planning to put corruption issue against Delhi BJP unit and particularly whoever the face of the Delhi BJP would be. AAP succeeded in their plans also as middle class voters started looking at a changed Kejriwal contemplating to trust him one more time.

As a brilliant strategist, Amit Shah realised this although at last moment. Thus he projected Kiran Bedi as CM candidate. This changed middle class opinion once again. They are already fan of Narendra Modi and now got the face for Delhi in Kiran Bedi who appeared to be better choice than Kejriwal. Most youth particularly young women find a role model in Bedi. Thus Modi-Bedi combination will do magic among middle class and upper class. At the same time induction of Krishna Tirath will have its impact in the twelve reserved seats.

At the same time, it's not all well inside AAP too. Both Prashant Bhusan and Kumar Vishwas raised serious questions on candidate selection. Although they committed to shut their mouth till election, but unity is clearly invisible. Shanti Bhusan praising Bedi and demanding election to replace Kejriwal as convener of AAP further damaged AAP's image.

There is no doubt about dissents among Delhi BJP leaders. But it also should be realized that those leaders have no mass support. In fact those leaders are the weak links of Delhi BJP. Thus their dissent would be advantageous for the BJP as the message going to public is that weak and corrupt leaders are no more in driver's seat of Delhi BJP. Some workers revolt, but they can't work for other parties and finally has to fall in line.

Now the point is how many middle class voters can be brought to polling booth. The problem with middle class is that they argue, choose and opine in everything but seldom comes to polling booths where as elections are always won or lost at polling booths only.

If Amit Shah is able to infuse strong motivation among workers and able to bring majority people to polling booths, then I don't think why BJP can't secure two third majority. Delhi public has already decided to whom they would vote and it's highly inclined towards Modi-Bedi combination. It's to be seen how Amit Shah transfers this mood into votes at polling booths.

Previous experience says that Shah has that ability and that's why I assured my Delhi friend that most probably Kiran Bedi would be the next CM of Delhi. One can't predict with 100% guarantee as politics is the game of making impossible a possible, that's why I used the words 'most probably'.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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