Let?s recall the 2004 general elections, where everyone was talking of Vajpayee wave. But the result was against the expectations. NDA defeated and UPA with post poll alliance formed the government. Even during 2009, many said there was an anti-UPA wave and Advani expected to ride on this anti-UPA wave to become the Prime Minister of India. He had also accepted the title of ?PM in waiting? and remained ?PM in waiting? still now as UPA formed government again in 2009 and BJP suffered further loss. Thus I would say with conviction that there is no wave at all for any party or against any party.
Now the next question will arise. Does Modi's presence have an impact for BJP in this general election? On this question, I would say with equal conviction that definitely Modi has a strong impact on BJP?s prospect. This impact generates no wave, rather generate strong under-current. The under-current can be defined as majority of the people are willing to vote in favour of Modi led BJP. But this willingness can?t be considered as a wave.
A wave can be possible if a party can harness the undercurrent to build a wave. Thus BJP needs to do all the ground work to harness this strong under-current. Popularity alone can?t win election. Elections are won or lost at polling booths. People supporting or liking Modi/BJP does not matter, if they do not come to polling booths to cast the vote.
During the 2004 elections also, there was a strong pro-Vajpayee under-current. He was the darling of middle class. But, he lost the election, because there was less voting by middle class. They didn?t come to polling booth expecting that NDA in any case would win. BJP ground worker and activists also became over-confident and considered the under-current as wave and didn?t attempt to harness the under-current. The current always became useless if it?s not harnessed properly.
Best example of this under-current and need of harnessing can be understood and realized if one closely scrutinizes Delhi Assembly elections. BJP?s Delhi-in-charge, Nitin Gadkari did a mistake of considering the pro-Modi under-current as Modi wave and remained complacent. It?s perhaps Modi?s strategists, who smelled a possible AAP win and BJP defeat during noon from the voting pattern. After which, damage control started on war basis and ground workers started mobilizing their supporters to polling booth. 20 seats went for voting till 8.30 pm and BJP won 12 out of these twenty seats with small margin. Had this damage control not been conducted in time, AAP would have bagged around 40 seats as there was a pro-AAP undercurrent too.
Thus BJP need to differentiate between under-current and wave. Under-current needs to be harnessed diligently to result a potential wave. The BJP supporters need to be brought to polling booths to cast their vote. Else despite strong Modi under-current, BJP would end up in the losing side and there could be a 3rd or 4th front with Congress being a part.
Also if this under-current is not harnessed properly and utilized wrongly, it would have a strong catastrophic effect. For example, after the 8th December 2013, AAP?s electoral success generated a strong under-current towards AAP and its convener Arvind Kejriwal.
People liked the party and Kejriwal sparked a new revolution. Even Modi was out of everyone?s mind for some days. Unfortunately AAP?s over-ambition reversed the under-current as if polarity changed. AAP should have harnessed this under-current carefully to consolidate their party slowly but strongly. But they indulged in hypes and drama and then suddenly go national. In this process they lost credibility. The under-current is going against them.
is popularity creates under-current. The under-current needs to be
harnessed to build a wave. If it?s not harnessed the under-current
becomes useless. If the under-current is wrongly used, it damages
self prospect. This is applicable for all parties, individuals and
stake-holders contesting an election.