IN 1949, the American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert predicted that fossil fuels might not last for very long. His prophesies were based on the fact that oil recoveries follow a bell-shaped curve. In the beginning, oil production rises rapidly, because the oil wells that are easily accessible are exploited first. By the time about half of the oil in a field is recovered, maximum production will have been reached. Oil production peaked in the United States in 1970. In countries outside the near and middle east, production peaked in 1997; since then, production has been on the decline. No one knows exactly when global oil production will peak; if it already has, when did it peak?  Some experts suggest it peaked in 2006.

So what will the consequences be for Joe Average? Car driving will become the rich man’s hobby and the cars still in use will be older and used longer than today’s cars. Countries with a good public transport system will benefit economically. Air traffic will become very expensive and long-distance tourism will decline. The trend towards globalization will be reversed and more and more products will be manufactured locally. 

For those who do not believe in such gloomy predictions, some journals on the subject may come in handy.  Journals which publish data on oil production and reserves are: “Oil & Gas Journal” which publishes every year (in December) statistics from all oil-producing countries. One has to consider that this data is a mere estimation by government-owned or private oil companies. Nobody can verify the accuracy of this data. British Petroleum (BP) publishes the “BP Statistical Review of World Energy”. Much of the data in this book is based on the contents of “Oil & Gas Journal”. The “United States Geological survey (USGS)” is another source. “Petroconsultants”, now called “HIS-Energy”, thoroughly maintains a database on oil production and reserves. 

The implications for the newly emerging economies are clear: high fuel prices in combination with high food prices will give rise to political unrest, as events in Burma / Myanmar have proved in 2007. At the same time, companies that specialise in renewable energies like wind energy will thrive, like the Indian wind-power company Suzlon, run by Tulsi Tanti. Nuclear power will also make a comeback in South Asia and not only in India: Iran plans to build more than 30 nuclear power plants.