Though Congress has 155 members, while the simple majority requires only 148 members, three of its members are already in Y S R Congress camp. And some more are indicating their preferences. A simple floor-crossing of five to six more members would lead to collapse of the Congress government.
In normal practice, collapse of the prevailing government will be hailed by the opposition parties as that would provide them an opportunity to improve their strength in the assembly. But surprisingly not a single political party in the state seems to be ready for immediate polls.
The principal opposition party Telugu Desam is not in a mood to face polls as of now. That’s why its leaders were tacit in their reply to the challenges from the Y S R Congress party leaders to move no-confidence motion against Kiran Kumar Reddy government. Suspecting that Y S R Congress may sweep the coastal and Rayalaseema region and TRS in the Telangana region, TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu started mammoth pada yatra only to prevent large scale migration from party ranks to Y S R Congress.
Both Congress and TDP seem to be confident that Jagan Mohan Reddy is unlikely to be released from jail on bail till the 2014 elections. Passing on of some time with court hearings and many more exposures by CBI and Enforcement Directorate, Y S R Congress may not keep gaining sympathy wave for long. Already it was reflected on the death anniversary of Dr Y S Rajasekhara Reddy with the steep fall in the number of visitors to his village.
The Telangana Rastra Samithi (TRS), which claims that it will win most of seats in Telangana region whenever polls are held, also doesn't seem to be in a hurry to face polls immediately. TRS Chief K Chandrasekhar Rao’s failure to obtain any formal assurance from the UPA Government at the center came even after waiting in Delhi for more than three weeks and knocking the doors of many senior Congress leaders. Even he failed to get an appointment with Congress chief Sonia Gandhi.
He realised his isolation and therefore felt the need to take time to regain his hold among the masses. So he formulated prolonged agitational programme.
Though all present indications are showing for a possible wave in favour of Y S R Congress, even that party leaders also seem to be not in hurry to force the mid-term poll. More than de-throwing this government and force for mid-term polls, the party leadership is worried about the fate of its leader Jagan Mohan Reddy. As the court proceedings are not giving them any hope of his release in near future, they realised that only understanding with the Congress high command will help them.
By creating an impression that it would be difficult for the Congress to survive in Andhra Pradesh without their support, the Y S R Congress leadership is attempting to force the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi to come to terms with them by helping Jagan Mohan Reddy to come out on bail.
Present political trends are indicating that Congress is bound to lose its majority in the assembly if Y S R Congress is ready to appreciate defections from the ruling party. However, it seems they are maintaining `wait and watch` attitude. That’s why they are not showing interest to move no-confidence motion against Kiran Kumar Reddy government instead of challenging Telugu Desam to do so.
As of now, Y S R Congress is in a position to secure support of 30 members in the assembly to take up no-confidence motion. As of now, it has 18 members, MIM has 7 members, 3 members from Congress and 3 more members from TDP are already in its trap. Their combined strength is already more than 30 members. However, it is trying to start a blame game against TDP.