Interestingly, all these agencies have given different results exhibiting the complexity of the UP elections. The poll in March predicted a hung assembly with BSP ahead (185 seats). The poll in the beginning of August by Cicero put BJP ahead in the race to form government (no seats projected) with 32% vote share.
While it can be said that between March and now, things have changed, leaders leaving BSP on allegations of sale of tickets, Dalit agitation etc., what has changed between August beginning and now? These surveys add to the chaos and confusion.
|Party|| Nielsen |
| CSDS-Lokniti |
Source: ABP News Surveys
Three clear trends emerge from all these surveys - (i) SP vote share has been consistently rising, (ii) Congress vote share is on a decline (Prashant Kishor impact?) and (iii) Others have maintained their vote share. The SP-led government has done well on most of the fronts and is seen lacking only on the law and order front as per their supporters.
Who will win Uttar Pradesh is a million dollar question about which nobody has a clue. Extrapolating the results from a small sample of voters to the larger state may no longer yield results. Indian elections becoming complex and difficult to predict accurately.
In a state as big and diverse as UP having seven distinct regions each having their own dynamics, unless an agency visits each and every seat (like done by Axis for Bihar), it's impossible to predict accurately the number of seats.
The voter of UP has always surprised analysts and this time also it could be no different situation. In the 2007 elections, BSP's victory was a surprise for everybody as polls were depicting a hung assembly. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, Congress won 21 seats, while it had never won more than 10 seats since 1989.
In 2012 assembly elections, Akhilesh won an absolute majority when polls again predicted a hung assembly. In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party did not dream that it would get 73 seats.
These are early days and many voters could still be undecided. They would firm up their choice nearer to the elections and decide based on candidate selection by the parties. Ultimately, the voter of UP will have the last laugh because "Yeh jo public hai, Yeh sab jaanti hai".
The UP elections have all the elements of a Bollywood potpourri where the leadership theory will again be put to test. Will BJP go leaderless like in Maharashtra, Haryana, J&K and Jharkhand where it won riding on Modi wave or will it announce a CM candidate? Can it pull off a win without naming a CM candidate?
Can Akhilesh score a double victory? Can Maya lure Muslims and form an unbeatable Dalit-Muslim combination? For answers to all these questions we have to wait till early next year….
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