ON TUESDAY (July 8), the Left parties will meet to decide on the future of giving support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Left parties had written a letter to the UPA asking it to reply by July 7 (Monday) on the issue that whether government is going ahead with the nuke deal or not. On Monday, the Left parties had received a reply form the UPA, but it has only requested the Left parties to attend one more meeting with the UPA. The role of Samajwadi Party (SP) in the entire tug of war remained crucial and with a clear assurance from the side of Amar Singh that SP will back the deal for national interest and for its commitment towards secularism, the UPA is sure to survive. The new political alignment is on the cards and old one is crumbling down. National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on the other hand is asking the government to prove its majority on the floor of the Parliament, which is not a problem for the UPA.

The new political marriage of the UPA with SP after it will take the divorce from Left is a very interesting political game. The old enemies are now friends and the faithful allies of the past are the contender in the present. On the national political arena, it is a hot spell but let us examine the issue in detail. The first issue is why Dr Manmohan Singh is so eager for the deal at this moment. According to American law, any such deal requires atleast 60 days of minimum discussion in the United States Congress for a proper ratification. With the elections in America not very far now this is impossible. Even if Bush and Singh sign the deal, it cannot be ratified and the fate of the nuclear deal is dependent on the next American government. The other very interesting point is that even the UPA is breathing its last at the Centre and has to face an election so the final say on the deal lies with the next government, which will come in New Delhi.

The haste for the deal is not rational from political calculations in which UPA is losing the ally like Left and will need the help of SP for survival. SP has its own agenda and it will do a hard bargain with the government. The government is not ready to concede demand of the Left who is opposing the deal on certain well-argued principals, but is ready to do barter with SP, which was equally opposed to the deal some three months back. It is for sure that Singh will be the prime ministerial candidate of the UPA for the next general election and to prove this point that he is not a weak personality Congress is ready to bear the brunt of the Left. In the last four years, unfortunately not even once the Prime Minister emerged as independent, tough, and above Sonia Gandhi. Everyone from union cabinet to the constituents of the UPA wants to deal with the ’madam’. During the tenure of Singh, UPA had faced some tough elections in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and in Karnataka. In none of these elections, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was the star campaigner for the Congress and UPA. Why it is so, the person who is the head of the state is not even confident to get the votes of the people or either to mobilise them for his party. It is very sad that wherever election takes place the local Congress leaders request Sonia or Rahul to campaign. This is enough to prove that even within the party Singh does not have a say, control, and reputation. The Congressmen are not confident that the Prime Minister can bring votes for them. The nuclear deal is nothing but personality make up for Singh who is going to face LK Advani, a very well known and accepted hardliner in Indian politics.

The other issue is that Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has launched a massive campaign that Manmohan Singh is good, intellectual, but not strong enough to rule the nation. Thanks to the apolitical moves of our Prime Minister, RSS utilised the nuclear deal issue for its campaign. RSS propagated that Singh wanted to have the deal with America, but under the pressure of Sonia and Left, he failed to do it. Singh want the deal for national interest, but under the pressure of anti-national Left/Communist and ’videshi mahila’ (Sonia), he has failed to deliver on the ‘Raj Dharma’. The image of ‘bechara Manmohan’ is popularised and Congress, which is shaky after the loss in Assembly elections of Karnataka, is trapped. The managers of Congress who do not have any political mass base and much governed by the media analysis have thought to counter it with the deal. The Congress managers are worried in proving the point that Singh is strong and for this, they are roaring back at the Left in a strong way. Whatever Congress and its adviser are thinking one thing is of sure that RSS emerged victorious from this situation. Congress and Left parted away from each other, which will give RSS a relief. The RSS ideologues are well aware of the fact that Left is crucial for the survival of UPA and once this bond is broken, the UPA will follow neo-liberal path without any check and take more anti-people positions. The inflation is already an issue and if UPA will go for more anti-people decision, it will pay a heavy price. Once again, Congress has proved that it is a master in the art of spoiling things. Hope some sense will prevail and Congress will take some right decision to ensure the defeat of RSS.