THE PRICES of oil have shot up by 44 per cent in the past year. It recorded an unprecedented $139 to a barrel this Friday. Market watchers, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have predicated oil prices touching $ 150 to 200 mark in the immediate and near future. Some of the contributory factors for the rise in prices are said to be the disproportionate increase in demands of the commodity in Asia, especially in the developing economies of China and India, persistent weakening of the dollar, Israel’s threats to neutralise Iran’s nuclear facilities and panic buying due to the fear of demands outstripping supplies because of volatility in the oil markets.
As a matter of fact, the widening gap between demand and supply has been the main factor responsible for the spiralling of oil prices upwards for quite some time now and worse, there is little hope of their returning to a manageable price in the conceivable future. In fact, according to some experts, the point of peak production is expected to be reached within a couple of years, after which the graph will head downwards irreversibly. And to add to our consternation, according to a report by World Energy Council, there is every likelihood of the world demand for energy doubling by 2050.
As such, the crushing high oil prices have had a near catastrophic effect on the world economies, putting budgetary planning and provisioning in a complete disarray. In the light of all this, it’s rather foolish and childish for any Indian to image that the Indian economy could remain immune from the adverse effects of what could be termed as a world economic crisis, which could as easily end up in a universal upheaval and disaster if not handled with a sense of responsibility, prudence and forethought by individual countries and the comity of nations.
The present Indian government can be faulted on many a score but certainly not on account of increasing the prices of some of the oil and gas based products. On the contrary, it’s a case of too little too late! As such, political protests in the form of bandhs and dharnas only display rank opportunism, are senseless and totally unwarranted. It only shows to what extend political parties can stoop low in order to rise to power.
Sadly, it has been the nation’s disturbing experience that each time the government of the day is forced to take an unpalatable decision fraught with serious political and economical implications, the opportunist Opposition, the irresponsible media and the characteristically expectant and impressionable public works itself into an overwhelming frenzy in unison, and no expletive is spared in public speeches and private conversations in condemnation of the government’s announced measures to deal with the burdensome situation somewhat pragmatically rather than giving in to unrealistic, populist expectations of most people and politicians. Worse, the critics base such criticism solely on the probable negative effects of the intervening measures, in utter disregard of the prevailing causes, circumstances and reasons forcing the government’s unwilling hand in taking a considered decision in the overall interests of the nation and its people, in spite of its likely political adverse effects on its electoral interests in the forthcoming elections.
Just marvel at the so-called ’HT-C Force Survey’, whatever it means, stands for or is worth, carried at the spur of the moment by some smart alecks in the media, involving fewer than 513 respondents in four metropolises. However, you may take it for granted that the survey in question is nothing but useless, to all intends and purposes. It dramatically announces by way of a small but colourful caption on the front page, “Urban India is feeling poorer, putting big purchases on hold, and planning to use its vote to express its frustrations.” Isn’t that quite a bit of sensational news for you, readers - something you supposedly crave for desperately in media’s estimation?
As a matter of fact, our country is now entering a crucial phase of very difficult and trying times. It would be wishful thinking and trifle foolhardy on anyone’s part to expect the international prices of oil to come down, rather than going up further, in the future. The world’s total oil production has been stagnating around 85 million barrels a day since 2005, and there seems to be very little likelihood of a marked increase in production in the near future. Fresh explorations do not indicate substantial quantities of usable and commercially viable oil reserves. Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unwilling to increase production any further or lower the prevailing prices. The point of peak oil production is about to be reached, although International Energy Agency and World Energy Council would have us believe that at the very least it will take a couple of decades to scale that point. Be that as it may, the oil crisis is likely to sink the world’s most advanced and developed economies, what to speak of the developing and under-developed economies. Such are the perils of the economies based on the concept of consumerism, that they are consumed by the very excesses they tout as a panacea for the economic good health of a nation!
Please pay attention to what the PM urged us to do in the wake of the oil crisis in his address to the nation the other day. He implied, to put it starkly: Prudent living and shunning of wasteful expenditure should be our clarion call. Spend full urges must be kept at bay. Expensive and fanciful aspirations must give way to down-to-earth fulfillment. In short, there should be some loftier aim in life than just to eat, drink and be merry. He further appealed: I urge all, please do swallow the bitter pill for the sake of nation’s good health, even if it should leave a sour taste in your mouth. And never mind the cost to your purse if such an expensive dose is likely to help in managing the widespread malaise to some extent, from the ill effects of which no government in the world is completely immune today.
Last but not the least, He demanded: Ask not what the nation has done for you; ask what you have done for the nation!