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Options for government formation after the 2019 Lok Sabha Election results
So far, in the Lok Sabha elections, 424 seats have been voted in five phases and polls on 118 seats are yet to be held, which will be for 59 seats each in two phases. Even if the Election Commission has banned election surveys, due to voting in many phases, it has become easy to guess about possible election results.

Most political parties are conducting election surveys from themselves and they know broadly how many seats they will get. Two types of options are emerging from the polling so far. First, instead of BJP, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will form the coalition government in the Centre. Second, the regional parties will form the government in the Centre and the Congress will support it from the outside.

The BJP fears that the coalition of 40 parties, which is known as NDA, will be away from the magical figure of the majority. BJP's General Secretary Ram Madhav has admitted that the BJP may stay away from the majority. However, Madhav is confident that the NDA will be able to win 272 seats. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also given a non-political interview to impress the voters in the remaining stages of polling. Right now, he is constantly giving interviews for newspapers and magazines.

It seems that the BJP wants to keep all options open. In the event of not touching the magical figure of majority, NDA, can join hands with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), YSR Congress and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS). Significantly, the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in Odisha have ended on April 29. Prime Minister Narendra Modi spent a long time with Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik on May 6, 2019 to implement this strategy. Both of them also took stock of the loss which occurred due to the cyclone "Fani". Prime Minister Modi also praised Patnaik's efforts in rescuing the people and running the restoration campaign on war footing scale which happened due to be cyclone Fani. This attitude of Prime Minister Modi is being seen as an attempt to make the negative situation positive if that comes after the election result.

The BJP is trying to woo young leader YS Jagan Mohan Reddy. However, YSR Congress chief Jagan Mohan can make difficulties for NDA by putting the demand of granting special state status to Andhra Pradesh. Though, this is not a big issue, because this can be resolved by discussing in the days to come.

Here, parties outside the alliance of BJP and Congress are trying to make 'Federal Front'. Apart from all the regional parties in this front, efforts are being made to bring some associates of the NDA. Telangana Chief Minister and TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao are trying to build this front. Rao met with the Kerala Chief Minister Pinarai Vijayan on 6th May, 2019 and discussed this issue deeply.

According to senior CPI (M) leader Vijayan, after the result of the election, regional parties are going to play a key role in forming a new government. It is notable that Rao has already been a supporter of non-Congress and non-BJP front. It is being said that they also have the support of the Congress and Trinamool Congress (TMC). Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar, who is part of the alliance with Congress, is also supporting this front. Vijayan says that this attitude of regional parties is essential for the protection of the interests of states. From the very beginning in the country, the central government has been rejecting the interests of states. Many times the federal system of the country has been hurt. According to Vijayan, the regional parties have to save the states from adverse effects.

Chief Minister of Telangana, Karnataka Chief Minister and Janata Dal Secular (JD-S) leader HD Kumaraswamy have also spoken regarding conceiving new chemistry. According to TMC, some of the NDA partners are also in touch with them, in which the name of Shiv Sena can be taken prominently. Mamta Banerjee had participated in a demonstration with Shiv Sena which was organized against the demonetization in the year 2016. Opposition parties also say that Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal United chief Nitish Kumar can leave the BJP in the event of the federal front being in existence. Mayawati, the chief of Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), a major party in the Legislative Assembly in Uttar Pradesh, said that after becoming the Prime Minister, she will contest from Ambedkar Nagar seat in Uttar Pradesh. Her ally Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has already talked about supporting Mayawati. Not only this, the talks between the BSP and the Congress can start again for formation of the government in the Centre.

The last round of voting will be held on May 19 and the result of the election will be announced on May 23. In such a situation, the opposition parties are scheduled to meet in Delhi on May 21, which is being considered as extremely important because in this meeting, the situation will be discussed after the election results. It has also been seen in the past that the coalition, which could not be formed before the election, became easily possible after the election to get power. Therefore, it is believed that in order to get the BJP out of power, the opposition parties can form a coalition government after the election results at the Center even if it proves to be temporary.

About the author: Satish Singh is currently working as Chief Manager in State Bank of India's Economic Research Department, Corporate Centre, Mumbai, and has been writing mainly on financial and banking topics for the last 10 years.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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