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Pakistan's violation of Indian airspace was only a hoax; a failed attempt at duping the international community
Post my article 'IAF strikes biggest training camp of JeM in Balakot: Why Pakistan will not dare a war against India?', published in this platform, Pakistan's two F-16 jets intruded into Indian airspace at Poonch sector on the morning of 27 February initiating a skirmish over the skies which resulted in one Indian MiG 21 and one F-16 of PAF being shot down in the PoK area. The Indian pilot Wing Commander Abhinandan was arrested by the Pakistani forces.

Some readers asked me how I would defend my article that Pakistan will not dare a war against India. During all these developments I was out of town, though very much aware being well connected with social media. Now below is my explanation and reason why I still believe that Pakistan will not dare a war against India. The 27 February offensive by Pakistan wasn't war but rather an intended act to attract international community's attention to interfere, in which the Islamic nation failed miserably.

When a nation goes to war, it requires a lot of preparation especially to defend any retaliation. Even to attack a terror camp inside Pakistan, India took around twelve days for preparation but Pakistan sent two F-16s, 6-7 km into Indian Territory without any preparedness.

After India's official version of non-military pre-emptive attack on terrorist camps in the wee hours of 26 February, Pakistan was really in a fix. It had to admit that Indian fighter jets had intruded 80 km into Pakistani airspace from the LoC and dropped bombs because in this digital satellite age the world knows when a fighter plane moves. However, Pakistan can't openly admit that there are terror camps functioning inside its territory and the air strikes by India had left many terrorists dead because that will result in Pakistan being blacklisted in FATF. This will be soon followed by imposition of UN sanctions on Pakistan. As a result Pakistan had to prepare a false narrative that no one was hurt in the Balakot air strike by IAF.

But Pakistan was prompted into thinking very fast as the PM Imran Kan-led ruling government was under immense pressure to respond to India's strike. It rightly assessed that India might not be expecting a next day retaliation although it would be ready for any eventuality. Thus a formation of 10 jets of PAF flied in Pakistan airspace for sometimes as if they are doing CAP (Combat Air Patrol). Suddenly three F16 Jets intruded inside Indian space for some moments, dropped a bomb in an open are and wanted to go back. The mission was to intimate that Pakistan Air force also have the capability to attack Indian military installation which they don't want, for which they dropped the bomb in open area. Imran Khan also called meeting of NCA (National Command Authority) that deals with nuclear options. Thus Pakistan in this brief mission wanted to alert the World Community that there might be a 'nuclear war' for which international community will be panicking and have to intervene giving equal footing between India and Pakistan. In the process the subject of terror would be ignored.

But problem started when IAF responded immediately and shut down one F16. In the process of engagement one mig-21 also shut down by Pakistani ground force, pilot of which is now Pakistan's custody. Thus the mission of Pakistan failed to generate support of international community. A non-military action's response can't be military response and that's what the message gone to World. That's why international community condemned Pakistan and even asked to dismantle terror infrastructure. Even USA warned Pakistan on use of F16s without their approval. USA provided F16s to Pakistan with a condition that it can't be used for offensive purposes without American permission.

So what's the end result of this Pakistani misadventure? India's avenge Pulwama ended with non-Military action on Balakot. The aggression by PAF on 27th February gave India another chance to respond militarily. The international community now pressurising Pakistan to take visible action against terror network to de-escalate the situation. That means onus of de-escalation is with Pakistan. Indian demarche too gave proof of Pulwama asking actions and reserving India's right to respond. Even China pressurised Pakistan not to escalate. That's why Pakistan PM started pleading for talks on terror to which India ignored with indirect message that for a dialogue it has to display visible action against terror master minds.

As per reports, PM Narendra Modi gave free hand to Indian forces to shuck out strategy to respond Pakistan's military aggression. It always take time from 7-15 days and it must happen if Pakistan doesn't take visible action. Most importantly Pakistan's nuclear bluff not taken by either India or the World. Thus what's offing in the coming time?

Pakistan may arrest and ban Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar even for eyewash. It may allow one more surgical strike indirectly. India's military response may start with naval blockade followed by air-strikes in select locations. Cold start may be an option if Pakistan doesn't comply international pressure. Most likely Pakistan has to concede at some important point for de-escalation as a result of which Pakistan would again might be under military rule followed by another coup.

But the point remains that Pakistan would never dare a full scale war against India because it would be disintegrated.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of merinews.com. In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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