Taliban terrorists miscalculated
The Taliban terrorists had deliberately leaked their plans of infiltrating into Kabul and the southern city of Kandhar to launch major bombings and stage gun duels to disrupt polls. Nothing of that sort happened. They did manage to attract attention by making a tally of 76 in gun fire fights and bumping off 26 compatriots. The tally did not go up because the Afghan security forces were on full alert throughout and they were backed by the NATO. Two Talibanis were killed in Kabul and a third captured.

Of course, if one looks at the voter turnout, one may concede that the Taliban terrorists succeeded in instilling fear of losing life or limb if people dared to exercise their right of franchise. The threat of terrorists was that if they saw Afghan men and women with fingers sporting indelible ink as a proof of voting, the fingers would be cut. On the other hand the Kabul administration backed by the Obama administration was equally determined to ensure a free and fair poll without violence. In the opinion of impartial observers who toured the booths in the North and the South, the Afghan elections could be termed as fair and open. It is a soothing feeling to know that terrorists did not succeed in severing fingers bearing indelible ink as a proof of participating in the democratic process. Women in Afghan society are by and large non-entities. However, they made their presence felt in all major cities, though not in rural areas. The first woman to vote in Kabul was none other than the wife of President Hamid Karzai. She was calm and composed and betrayed no sign of fear of terrorists.

Indeed both the husband and wife voted in a polling booth near the Presidential Palace and had been provided a heavy security cover. Moreover, there were two women candidates too. The political observers do not rate their chances of making a dent in votes of serious candidates as high. We must give due credit to women voters too. Wearing burqas or just head scarves they came out of the house despite the Taliban warning and exercised their franchise. One may safely surmise that the Afghan social set up is undergoing a change for the better. A word of warning to the progressive elements in the society should be sounded. The bearded mullahs of the old and archaic school may be down but they are not yet out.

Outcome at the hustings
The polling is over. It began at 7am and went on till 4pm on August 20, 2009. At some booths, extra time was officially allowed to make up for the administrative delays. In any case, all those who had lined up in the booth before the expiry time were allowed to vote. Where do the Afghans go from here? Well, a success is a success, however moderate it may be. Despite the low turnout, 50 per cent or so compared to 70 per cent in the first Presidential election in 2004, 9.5 million Afghan men and women have voted this year. Who can ignore their preference for a democracy? Not even the Kalashnikov-wielding terrorists. People’s power is stronger than terror power. In Afghanistan, the power now comes out of the ballot box and not out of the gun. The social and political environment is undergoing change. What will be the outcome of this poll? It is hard to predict but we may speculate.

The South had not come out to vote in full strength. The Pashtoons live in Southern Afghanistan. Comparatively speaking the North has been more enthusiastic in going to the polling booths and voting. However, there are more voters among Pashtuns than among Tajiks and they can tilt the balance. The Tajiks, Hazras, and the warlords like General Rashid Dostum live in the North. So does Abdullah Abdullah. Of course, Dostum has pledged his support to Karzai despite the latter being a Pashtun. One wonders if the old tribal loyalties are now crumbling.

The manual counting has begun but it may not be before early September that results will be out. If Karzai succeeds in getting 50 per cent or more of the total votes polled, he will be declared a winner and enjoy a second term in office. If he fails there, then there will be a second round of voting between the two candidates polling the highest number of votes and standing first and second. Thus, Karzai and Abdullah may stand eyeball to eyeball once again. The voters will have a second opportunity to choose the President of Afghanistan. Political pundits wish to bet on Karzai as the winner in the second round.