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Political analysts agree with 'Advantage Kejriwal' theory floated by exit polls
According to various exit polls Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will get a comfortable majority in 70-member Delhi assembly to form the next government. The polls predict that BJP will be the second largest party, however, the Congress will be decimated in Delhi elections.

The exit polls by ABP-Nielsen, India TV-CVoter, India Today-Cicero, News Nation, Axis-APM and News 24-Today's Chanakya say that the Delhi's voter have forgiven and forgotten AAP's mistake (s) and have voted in majority in the favour of Arvind Kejriwal.

    BJP   Congress    AAP   Others 
 ABP-Nielsen    28  03  29 0
  India TV-CVoter   27-35   02-04  31-39  1
 India Today- Cicero   23-39  01-03  35-43  0
 News Nation   27  02  41 0
 Axis-APM   27  0  53 0
News- 24 Today's Chanakya    22  0  48 0

Exit polls may or may not support the actual results. In past there were examples of both when actual results were totally different from exit polls, and when actual results were in line with exit polls.

We spoke to few political analysts to know their views on the Delhi elections results predicted by exit polls. In one voice analysts supported the 'advantage Arvind Kejriwal' theory floated by the various exit polls. 

Dr. Furqan Ahmed, Political Science professor, Jamia Millia Islamia said, "Certainly there was a wave, the wave of AAP. AAP is coming with full majority or not, I don't know, but certainly it will come up with good majority I suppose, because there was a wave. And to whom we have contacted, they were of the opinion that 'why not this AAP party should be given majority, this has some development agenda, this will bring some fairness in the governance'. So, it was the general opinion, so there was a wave. Still exit poll is exit poll, we can't just rely on the exit poll. But, certainly keeping in view the majoritarian opinion, it seems that AAP is coming up."

Dr. Pradip K Dutta, Professor at Department of Political Science, Delhi University said, "It's really difficult to say, as I don't know how the exit polls have been conducted, as I have not participated in any of these. But, clearly all of them are showing that BJP is on the losing side. In general, exit polls are more accurate than other polls. So, the fact that there are so many exit polls, except the one and the reputable ones like Chanakya all are saying that AAP is going to win. It seems to me like 90 per cent or at least 75 to 90 per cent chance is that they are going to win. But this is not the poll itself, poll results can be different. We are talking about probability, not certainty. Whenever you are talking about polls it is probability but not certainty. But probability is of very high percentage that AAP is going to get much more seats then BJP. If not much more than more seats than BJP."

Arvind Mohan, political analyst said, "Exit polls are more accurate than opinion polls, but this is not the final result. Still they give an indication and that too a better one. And as all the exit polls are pointing the same thing, and there is no contradictory poll, so we should think that Kejriwal is going to win."

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