Meanwhile another drama also occurred during this period in Bihar. First 13 MLAs from RJD revolted and Bihar speaker allowed them to exercise an option to merge with JD (U). Lalu immediately did damage control and 9 out of 13 MLAs returned to the RJD fold while saying that they had been cheated. From remaining 4 MLAs it's expected that at least two will return. The remaining two explained that since in their opinion RJD is virtually merging with the Congress, hence they revolt.
There is no doubt that JD(U) engineered this revolt. There are no takers of Nitish Kumar's version that he wasn't aware of Bihar assembly speaker's decision. Every sane people in India are aware that speakers of state Assemblies and even Parliament follow party instruction (Somnath Chatterjee was perhaps only exception). But why Nitish Kumar indulged in such act?
Clearly after the Congress favouring RJD for alliance, JD (U) found itself cornered. Even Paswan didn't come to his fold. Opinion polls show serious downfall for JD (U). He purely knew that third front is of no use. After leaving NDA, he is in contest for minority and caste votes with RJD. Thus he might thought that if he can bring around 15 MLAs of RJD in his fold, then not only he could dent RJD?s poll prospect, he can also force the Congress to make an alliance with him.
But Lalu is always very strong in his constituency of caste-religion equation. In his presence, he will not allow anybody to take advantage. Rather Lalu is playing a victim card against Nitish, further lowering JD(U)'s remaining credibility.
Had Lalu been in jail; Nitish could have won this gamble. But question is why Nitish is so desperate? If he is convinced that his credibility in Bihar is unmatched, he should strive on his performance instead of engineering such coups!
But fact is different. In rivalry with Modi, In fact Nitish gives little importance on governance because he is busy to uphold his bold face and ego. That's why his credibility is eroding day by day. Another problem is also there. Nitish's government is a minority government supported by the Congress from outside.
Thus Congress's alliance with RJD may trigger a no-confidence motion if RJD-Congress alliance performs well post 2014. This would result in fall of JD (U)?s government! Many JD (U) members too are not happy with the split from NDA as they feel its Nitish's personal ego that forced the divorce between BJP and JD (U)!
In such a delicate balance, it may also be possible that post 2014, MLAs from JD (U) break away and merge with BJP for a BJP government in Bihar post general election! Thus in any case JD (U) remains loser.
Thus, instead of eying national ambition, Nitish Kumar must focus on his governance and his credibility. He shouldn't engage in petty politics and poaching games. Otherwise, he may soon become irrelevant and sent to oblivion.