Setback to BJP, hopes rise for Congress
The results of the five state Assembly elections, considered to be ?semi finals? to the Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be held in April, 2009, came as a severe setback to the leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party and raised new hopes for the Congress
THE ASSEMBLY election results reflected the changing mood of the Indian electorate, who said in clear terms that they were fed up with high-profile leaders and preferred the leaders who are more accessible to the people and also can promise good performance.
A year ago, the Congress had lost all hopes to retain Delhi’s chief ministership. All the political pundits predicted BJP victory. This has made the BJP leadership insensitive to the mood of the electorate and it fielded the old horse, Vijay Kumar Malhotra, as their chief ministerial candidate.
This resulted in a surprising successive third-term victory to Sheila Dikshit. No Congress leader expected that their party could win so many seats. Even in Rajasthan, the egoistic style of functioning of chief minister Vasundhra Raje helped the Congress to return to power after a gap of five years.
Had the BJP national leadership succeeded in settling inter-party problems, the results of these two states may have been different to some extent. On the other hand, the Congress lost Madhya Pradesh more due to internal conflicts, rather than the BJP’s strength.
Change of Pradesh Congress leadership, foisting a Union minister to lead the Pradesh Congress Party, has primarily spoiled the party’s chances. The success of Congress in three state Assemblies, just before Lok Sabha elections has helped to inspire its cadre throughout the country.
After Dr Manmohan Singh became prime minister, except in Assam and Maharashtra, Congress was defeated in all 14 Assembly elections. After 2004, winning three Assemblies this time, though Delhi and Manipur are smaller states for Lok Sabha polls, this victory has brought great enthusiasm for the party cadre.
The BJP prime ministerial candidate LK Advani, who was in an upbeat mood following his party’s and its allies’ victories in several Assembly elections like Bihar, Orissa, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, was on the defensive. He had no answers for his party’s defeat in Rajasthan and Delhi. As his ‘core group’ monitored the entire campaign, right from projecting the chief ministerial candidate and selecting candidates, more than the party set-up, Advani seems to be a dull face.
The success in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, may give a face-saving performance for the BJP and the credit goes more to its chief ministers than Advani. The analysis on some English news channels said that the leaders close to English news channels like Vasundhara Raje were voted out by the voters. But those humble leaders, so far neglected by English news channels like Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh and Ashok Gehlot, have caught the attention of the voters. Even Sheila Dikshit is a humble politician. These four leaders are accessible to the common people. They were also free from corruption charges.
Of course, Vasundhara Raje was also a good administrator. But her egoistic attitude made her unpopular. Particularly, the killing of large number of farmers in police firing portrayed her image as being anti-rural. Both Delhi and Madhya Pradesh chief ministers crushed dissident groups in the party denying them seats.
The major setback to the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate is that his pet themes like internal security, price rise and UPA’s soft attitude towards terrorism all failed to catch the attention of the party. As both Delhi and Rajasthan elections were held after terror strikes in Mumbai, the defeat of BJP, shows that they can no longer depend upon emotional issues. They have to convince the people they can provide better governance.
For the last one year, Advani has been making efforts to convince the people that he would be a better choice as Prime Minister. No other leader in the post-Independence period has struggled so hard to project himself as he has done. At this juncture, the results are really worrying Advani camp and would force him to revise all his strategies to win in the Lok Sabha elections.
However, the results also gave a warning to the Congress. The major gains it could get in Delhi and Rajasthan was mostly due to projection of a leader as its possible chief minister. Their clean image also helped them. They may not get such results from their present chief ministers in Andhra Pradesh, Assam and other small states.
The revolt in the party on the ‘selection’ of the chief ministerial candidate in Maharashtra in the post-terror strike period is likely to damage party’s interests in the Lok Sabha elections. It is yet to project leaders accessible to common people in several other states. Particularly in big states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh the party is facing crisis of leadership.
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