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Shinning economic indicators for India
According to the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT), during the April-December period of the financial year 2018-19, the government's income tax revenues stood at Rs.7.43 lakh crore, which is 13.6 per cent more than the same period of the previous financial year, whereas the advance tax collection stood 14.5 per cent more than the last FY.

The advance tax collection has reached Rs.3.64 lakh crore. As per CBDT, "unprecedented income tax collection" has happened in the last 2 years. Based on the income tax collection figures, it can be said that the increase in direct tax collection is in line with expectations. Generally, advance tax receipts increase in March, because the tax payers usually deposit advance tax in the month of March. It is believed that the income tax collection is likely to increase further in the current financial year.

A survey conducted by Global Consultancy firm PWC and industry body, Indian Commerce and Industry Federation (FICCI), revealed that 74 per cent of manufacturers are expected to grow fast in their respective areas during the next 12 months. In the survey titled "The India Manufacturers Barometer 2019-Building Exports Competitiveness", companies related to automobiles, electric machines, chemicals and textiles, other manufacturing sectors were questioned, which contribute 12 per cent to the GDP. PWC report says that 51 per cent of the respondents have admitted that there has been a positive effect of commodity and service tax (GST) in facilitating logistics and related procedures, helping in increasing revenue etc while 66 per cent believe that tax reforms should increase investment and has been positive in the direction of accelerating economic development. At the same time, 85 per cent of the corporates believe that due to global demand in the future, their turnover will increase.

According to the data released by the Central Statistics organization (CSO), the growth of the economy in the current financial year will not be as expected. As per the figures, the financial year 2018-19, GDP could increase at a rate of 7.2 per cent, while the Reserve Bank of India had projected 7.4 per cent in the case and the finance ministry had estimated a 7.5 per cent increase. However, there has been a sharp spurt in GDP compared to the previous financial year. In the financial year 2017-18, the GDP growth was 6.7 per cent. The World Bank has described India as the fastest growing economy in the world. The World Bank has said in its report that India's GDP will grow at 7.3 per cent in financial year 2018-19 and the GDP growth will increase to 7.5 per cent in the next two years. The World Bank said in the report that the impact of reformist movements effect like GST and demonetization has come to an end and the economy has again gained momentum. China's economy is projected to grow by 6.2 per cent in financial year 2018-19 and 2020, and 6 per cent in 2021.

According to Ayan Kos, Director of World Bank Prospectus Group, increase in consumption, consistent reforms in GST and recapitalization of banks will accelerate the pace of GDP growth, while the pace of global economy is sluggish at the present time. There are various types of risks being seen globally. The growth rate of developed economies is also expected to be lower, which can reach 2 per cent, while the decrease in external demand and the cost of credit can increase the average growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies to 4.2 per cent.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has claimed in its report that India will be the world's third largest consumer market by 2030, while China will remain in the first place and the US will remain second place. India's consumer spending in this period is expected to increase from 1.5 lakh crore to 6 lakh crore. According to Zara Engligian, a member of the WEF's consumer industry's leading and executive committee, India's private consumption is 60 per cent of the GDP and it is the fastest emerging market in the world. Not only this, Zara Engligian also said that in this time 25 million people in India can come above the poverty line.

The Modi government is trying to improve the economic sector with its reformist measures. In the same sequence, on January 10, 2019, the GST Committee doubled the GST exemption limit by doubling it. In the Northeastern states, the limit will now be 20 lakhs, whereas in other parts of the country, 40 lakhs. In this order, the limit of composition scheme was increased from Rs 1 crore to 1.5 crore. Under this, the traders will deposit the quarterly tax, but they will have to submit tax returns annually. Regardless of this decision, the government will suffer loss of revenue, but small and medium businessmen have received great relief from this decision of the government.

In the changing environment, changes in law or rule need to be made from time to time. In the context of GST, the latest decision taken by the government has been taken under this concept. At present, GST can be considered as the main source of revenue collection. In the coming days, by the help of GST, the government is expected to increase its revenue. It may be said that even in the context of GDP, the government has not received the expected results, but on other fronts the government is getting success in achieving the goal. However, in the context of GDP, global agencies have not yet given up on the expectation and they are hopeful of better GDP in India in the current financial year.

About the author: Satish Singh is currently working as Chief Manager in State Bank of India's Economic Research Department, Corporate Centre, Mumbai, and has been writing mainly on financial and banking topics for the last 10 years.

Editorial NOTE: This article is categorized under Opinion Section. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of In case you have a opposing view, please click here to share the same in the comments section.
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